The latest sociological data from Czechia look threatening. According to the recent survey by the Median agency, support for the opposition party ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, has risen to 34%. Equally significant is the level of support for the openly anti-Ukrainian party SPD, at 9.5%.

These two political forces together significantly outpace the parties currently in the coalition government.

It means that in the event of snap elections, a new coalition could be formed by ANO and SPD, potentially resulting in a change in Prague's foreign policy.

The likelihood of such a scenario and the possibility of changing Czech public sentiment are discussed in an article by EuroPravda editor Yurii Panchenko – No Chance for 'Putin's Friends': Is It Possible for Czech Foreign Policy to Shift.

Accusations against the current government include prioritising support for Ukraine over the interests of ordinary Czech citizens, a key point raised by the opposition.

Furthermore, it is likely that criticism of Prime Minister Petr Fiala's government, which is already quite potent, will significantly increase. Starting on 1 January 2024, changes aimed at slowing the growth of the national debt will come into effect.

The Czech government has prepared a package of rather unpopular measures, and one of the reasons they have proceeded with these measures is that there are no elections planned in Czechia any time soon.

Of course, the opposition, especially the ANO party, opposes these measures and has long called on President Petr Pavel to veto them (unsuccessfuly).

One key difference between Czechia and Slovakia is the significantly greater public support for Ukraine.

As a result, the main Czech opposition party, ANO, and its leader Andrej Babiš cannot afford to adopt openly anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, as Robert Fico and his party Smer-SD did during the recent campaign in Slovakia.

Another difference between Czechia and Slovakia is the willingness of Slovak leaders to form coalitions with far-right forces.

The current Slovak coalition includes the far-right Slovak National Party of Andrej Danko. There was also consideration of inviting the openly far-right Republic into the coalition, but this did not happen because it did not receive enough support to enter the parliament.

Is Andrej Babiš prepared for such a reputational blow? It's far from certain.

Babiš's priority remains an alliance with "normal" parties, which makes a significant adjustment to foreign policy unlikely, especially regarding support for Ukraine.

Although a lot can change in two years, even if the opposition wins, it is unlikely that Czech foreign policy will undergo substantial correction.