On 8 November in Brussels, the European Commission (EC, the EU’s executive body) adopted a long-anticipated but still interim decision regarding the start of accession negotiations with the EU.

The final decision by the European Commission brought surprises – both pleasant and not so pleasant.

Read more on the European Commission's report and when to expect the actual start of Ukraine's accession negotiations in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor – Yellow Light for Ukraine: EU Commission Decision on When EU Accession Negotiations Will Begin.

The European Commission recommended that the member states (those who make the final decision) initiate EU accession negotiations with Ukraine. This is a victory. The EC decision is not final. It must be approved (either in its current form or in an updated version) by the EU summit, scheduled for 14 December.

Now, here's the important positive news: a unique, accelerated accession procedure has been devised for Ukraine, which did not exist before. The intermediate, technical stages will begin in December as soon as the political decision is made at the EU summit. If the assessment in March 2024 is positive, the EU will try to expedite the process, potentially in April 2024, by holding an intergovernmental conference, where member states will approve a technical document called the "negotiating framework." After that, the negotiations will begin. However, the exact dates are not yet known, because every decision requires consensus. The issue of Hungary remains unresolved.

For example, Albania and North Macedonia had to wait for the "framework" approval for over two years.

Kyiv has always argued that such a slow pace is unacceptable.

So, the European Commission has created a procedure for Ukraine's accession that never existed before.

Four requirements are listed in the EC decision that Ukraine must meet by March 2024 in order for accession to be greenlit:
- enact a law proposed by the government increasing the staffing cap for the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine;
- remove from the law on corruption prevention the provisions restricting the NACP's powers to continued verification of assets;
- enact a law regulating lobbying in line with European standards;
- enact a law addressing the remaining Venice Commission recommendations from June 2023 and October 2023 linked to the Law on national minorities.

The national minorities are broadly defined. This gives Hungary (and the Commissioner for Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, appointed by Hungary) the opportunity to both praise and criticise Ukraine's compliance with this condition, depending on the political situation.

For Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, this "game" with the European Commission is financially beneficial, as he can leverage blocking Ukraine and receive financial advantages in return. Ukraine must compromise with Hungary in order to satisfy it.

However, the third requirement is truly dangerous. It sets a precedent that could pose problems for Ukraine in future negotiations. This requirement is to make membership negotiations dependent on whether Ukraine passes a lobbying law.

Ukraine thus faces a situation where it is presented with a requirement that is not based on European standards and was not part of previous requirements for acceding to the EU.

Read more on the European Commission's report – Yellow Light for Ukraine: EU Commission Decision on When EU Accession Negotiations Will Begin