The European Commission recommended granting candidate status to Georgia. All of the country's leading political parties received this decision positively, as Georgia's public support for EU membership is at 89%.

The government and the opposition see it differently.

To understand how this EU's decision will impact Georgia's politics and whether it can prevent the country from shifting towards Russia, read the article by Yurii Panchenko, EuroPravda's editor – Candidate status in advance: how EU trying to save Georgia from turning towards Russia.

"This (the recommendation to grant candidate status – Ed.) would not have happened if Bidzina Ivanishvili had not made that historical breakthrough with his team, Georgian Dream, which continues this great Georgian national cause," said Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili in response to the news from Brussels.

For those following Georgian politics, this statement looks more than contradictory.

The ruling party Georgian Dream and its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili (who remains the de facto most influential person in the country), have done a lot over the past year to prevent Tbilisi from obtaining this status.

While expressing "one hundred percent certainty" in receiving candidate status, the Georgian government simultaneously prepared for the opposite scenario. Since September, the opposition announced plans to organise mass protests in Tbilisi "following the Maidan scenario," starting with a refusal to obtain candidate status.

Such a scenario could lead to Georgia's final shift towards Russia. Brussels took this into account.

Indeed, in the months leading up to the European Commission's recommendations, there were anonymous statements from European officials in the media. Despite the low level of compliance with the conditions, the likelihood of granting Georgia candidate status is quite high since it is the only way to prevent Tbilisi from falling into Russia's orbit.

"Formally expressing support for the European course, the government promoted anti-Western narratives... It will now be much more challenging for the government to take steps toward Moscow, justifying it by saying that Europe doesn't really want us," says Georgian political analyst Tengiz Pkhadze.

Last year, the European Union presented a package of 12 sectoral reforms as a condition for granting candidate status.

The Georgian government claims to have implemented at least 10. However, the European Commission's assessment is quite different, as they only recognised three reforms.

And it's not surprising, as the fulfilment of all requirements would have deprived Georgian Dream of its monopoly on power.

The next parliamentary elections in Georgia are scheduled for next year. Almost immediately after that, presidential elections are due to be held. Starting in 2024, constitutional changes will come into effect, according to which the head of state will be elected not in nationwide elections but by a special electoral college of mainly parliamentarians.

The parliamentary elections in 2024 will have another feature. For the first time, MPs will be elected by a proportional system, not a mixed one.

These changes increase the opposition's chances since the ruling party traditionally gained all or the vast majority of seats in the majoritarian districts.

At the same time, Georgia obtaining candidate status seems to be in favour of the ruling party.

"With its decision, the European Union has proven that membership for Georgia is very real. Yes, this achievement can earn points for the government. But only if people see that the current government is implementing a pro-Western course.

The most crucial is that the choice will now be about who can better implement all the necessary reforms and lead Georgia to EU membership: the government or the opposition," says Salome Samadashvili, a member of oppositional Lelo.

So, the main conflict between the pro-Western and pro-Russian forces of Georgia are still ahead.