Who Is Ready to Block Ukraine's EU Membership, and How Does EU Summit Plan to Overcome It?

The European Union is entering a crisis of internal conflicts that hinder decision-making and make Brussels helpless in crisis situations. Radical leaders for whom the existence of a powerful and influential united Europe is more of a curse than a blessing block and sabotage EU unity.

The decisions to back Ukraine is vital not only for Ukraine itself but also for the EU. The decisions made (or not made) in Brussels at the end of this week could be decisive for its own future.

Yes, you understood it right. We are talking about Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, but he expects not to remain alone for long. Moreover, Hungary has already found a situational ally – Austria. Although it is likely to agree to compromise, dealing with Orbán is more challenging, especially after his meeting with Putin.

Read more about the reasons and consequences of this situation in the report from Brussels by EuroPravda's Sergiy Sydorenko and Iryna Kutielieva – Austria-Hungary against Ukraine: How "Orbán coalition" show up and what it demands before EU summit.

Statements that Austria do not plan to agree to start negotiations with Ukraine have emerged recently and surprised many.

The most resonant was the statement by Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer: he publicly, in a meeting with Austrian MPs, said that Austria would not agree to negotiations on Ukraine's EU accession "under current conditions."

These "conditions" are not related to Ukraine itself. Vienna is not hiding it. Austrians have their favourites among candidate states. Specifically now it is Bosnia and Herzegovina. The claim is that Brussels proposes to start accession negotiations with Ukraine but not with Bosnia.

In response, Austria essentially started open blackmail against the European Union.

However, all EuroPravda sources are confident that Austria will back down at the last moment.

The problem is that even temporary Austrian blackmail strengthens the positions of the real enemy of Ukraine's Eurointegration – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Because it creates a kind of "Austro-Hungary" at the EU summit. Let this alliance be temporary and situational, let the arguments of Budapest and Vienna be fundamentally different – it doesn't matter.

What matters is that Orbán will feel he is not attacking Ukraine alone, which will strengthen his position.

Unlike the Austrian, the Hungarian Prime Minister has no intention of compromising and is determined to veto the summit's decisions. Anyone following the news from the EU already knows this.

Orbán has made his rhetoric extremely harsh recently.

One of the leading EuroCouncil officials told journalists "off record":

"Do you want to understand what Orbán wants? Well, if we could understand it ourselves! I hope we will hear it at the summit. But for now, we only see that he is changing his claims. Yes, he used to talk about protecting the Hungarian minority. Now we don't hear it anymore but geopolitical arguments have appeared instead."

The main intrigue is the question of what caused such a dizzying change. There are at least three main versions: Russian influence, deep financial problems due to losing access to part of the European funds, and ideological. Detailed explanations for each of them in the full version of the article.

It is entirely possible (and even very likely) that each of these reasons has a partial impact. Perhaps there is also a fourth, entirely different reason. Only the Prime Minister of Hungary knows this for sure.

But if Orbán really decides to block negotiations with Ukraine, no one will be able to force him to back down. Even cautious Euro-bureaucrats are now sceptical. "Chances of success – 20-30%," one high-ranking official shared with journalists on Wednesday. Although considering the recent statements, this estimate seems even too high.

Ukrainian leadership is also preparing for refusal.

They do not publicly admit to a "complete failure." Firstly, it can almost certainly be said that the EU summit will make a decision on financial assistance to Ukraine. Secondly, even a veto on the start of negotiations can be different.