When Can EU Override Orbán’s Veto on 50 Billion Euros in Aid to Ukraine
The EU summit on 14-15 December brought a truly historic decision for Ukraine. It was greenlit to start EU accession negotiations. The member states agreed that this process should start immediately.
EU leaders, however, have not agreed on the financial package, which includes 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. The Hungarian Prime Minister vetoed the decision.
The Hungarian blockade is unpleasant but temporary. Money for Ukraine is available, and the EU is currently figuring out how to send it to Kyiv.
Read more in the article by EuroPravda's editor Sergiy Sydorenko – Taming Orbán: Why Will EU Allocate 50 Billion Euros to Ukraine despite Hungarian Veto.
First, a very brief and illustrative explanation of what this money is and why it gets so much attention.
A 50-billion-euro EU assistance is extremely significant, which hardly needs any clarification. External financing is crucial for Ukraine in times of war, as th eeconomy revenues are insufficient to cover even the most essential expenses, including salaries for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the purchase of weapons and ammunition.
The main financial donors helping Ukraine withstand financially are the European Union and the United States, with direct budgetary assistance also coming from other countries (mostly G7 members) and from IMF.
Funding from the United States, however, is currently suspended due to political debates. The most optimistic scenario for approving the updated budget is January 2024. The EU money (1.5 billion euros per month) has been helping so far, but it is set to expire by the end of this year. From 1 January, there will be a void.
This void was supposed to fill in the new EU programme, totalling 50 billion euros, called the Ukraine Facility.
The programme was not approved at the EU summit on 14-15 December.
Instead, 26 EU member states reached a preliminary agreement on funding volumes and that Ukraine should receive this money regardless of the agreement of the 27th state, namely Hungary.
Although persuading Orbán remains desirable. He himself signaled that he might be willing to "come around."
The EU is convening an extraordinary summit in Brussels on 1 February for that purpose.
What did EU leaders come up with when they realised that Hungary would not back down?
All 26 EU member states, except Hungary, not only agreed in general that Ukraine needs help but also detailed to provide Ukraine with 50 billion euros in proportion to their contribution to the EU budget. They also agreed that this would happen regardless of Orbán's consent.
The heads of member states instructed the European Commission to prepare a decision bypassing the Hungarian veto in such a way that it would not leave the Hungarian authoritarian leader in the role of a winner.
Is the delay in the decision until the February summit critical for Kyiv?
The answer is unequivocal – no. The budget still has strength in reserve.
The main thing needed now is confidence that the decision will be guaranteed in February. The confidence is there.
Moreover, the EU believes that it is most likely Orbán will get angry at the new summit, making a fuss, but will give his "approval" for financing Ukraine through the standard procedure.
And Orbán himself is already suggesting that he will vote "in favour."