NATO finds Russian offensive in spring unlikely

The North Atlantic Alliance's analysts believe that the Russian army's transition to an offensive in Ukraine in the coming months is unrealistic.

According to a senior NATO official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in Brussels, NATO does not believe Russia has the ability or preparation to launch an attack.

"Regardless of the tactical situation, it appears unlikely that Russia will be able to launch a significant offensive operation in the spring," the representative of the Alliance's leadership said.

The key condition for the Russian Federation's significant offensive in the Alliance is mobilisation in volumes significantly larger than the current one, which takes time and has yet to be launched.

"To support a serious offensive, Russia would need to launch a massive mobilisation effort. However, Putin does not want to do this in the run-up to the election. Although covert mobilisation is taking place, we see it, but it will not allow for launching a truly serious offensive during the spring," the official is convinced.

The NATO representative emphasised that this does not contradict the intensification of hostilities in certain sectors of the front; NATO believes the Russian Federation deliberately chose this path.

"There will be a focus on symbolic small operations, such as what is happening in Avdiivka, but we do not expect a strategic offensive," he said.

NATO, however, has no information on whether mobilisation will begin after the elections, which will indicate the beginning of preparations for further actions.

According to European Pravda, the most heated topic at the NATO defence ministers' meeting was the situation following Donald Trump's statements.

Furthermore, following a meeting in Brussels, NATO members agreed to provide Ukraine’s Armed Forces with a million drones. It was also revealed that NATO and Ukraine are establishing a joint training facility in Poland.