How Ukraine's chances to receive US aid changed

Thursday, 8 February, brought long-awaited positive news from the US Congress.

The first meaningful step on legislative initiative to provide Ukraine with additional funding has been taken for the first time in months.

So, it was only a procedural vote, which is yet to become substantive. And yes, it's only one chamber, so in any case, the bill still needs to pass the House of Representatives.

But if the situation in Congress works out as best as possible, then the full adoption of this package is a matter of weeks.

Read more in the article by Oleh Pavliuk, a journalist of European Pravda – A ray of hope from US: What Senate support for proving aid for Ukraine really means.

Approval of additional military and other aid to Ukraine has been delayed since October 2023, when the Joe Biden administration requested it as part of a package of additional funding to be approved by Congress.

The so-called Trumpist, the Republican Party far-right wing, which speculating by saying that "aid to Ukraine is a robbery of American taxpayers," became a major voice in the US House of Representatives back then.

So binding aid for Ukraine with Israel, plus restraining China, looked very logical since the last two issues have broad bipartisan support, even among Trumpists.

But Republicans rallied around a new demand – protection of the Mexican border.

To cut it short, the Republican Party demanded tough anti-immigration measures, including border closure, when the White House and the Democrats proposed reforming the asylum system itself to address the root problems of migration.

The US Senate decided to form a bipartisan group to work out a compromise. It has published a bipartisan bill with additional funding for Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific region after several months of work, in addition to new immigration measures.

It looked like both Senate groups had reached a compromise, so at least there, adoption was guaranteed.

But no: the published measures raised questions among both Republicans and a small part of the Democrats.

The Republican camp split into several parts. Some of them directly demanded tougher measures, not without Donald Trump's rhetoric, who claimed that "only a fool, or a Radical Left Democrat, would vote for this horrendous Border Bill."

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, realising that it would be tough to get the necessary 60 votes for the package consideration, activated Plan B: separating border measures from aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. This plan was supported by his Republican colleague Mitch McConnell, who acknowledged lack of quick unity on the border issue any time soon.

And the first two procedural votes on the alternative package passed successfully.

We are only talking about a procedural vote in the US Senate now, but even this is an extremely positive signal. Starting from October 2023, no initiative for additional funding to Ukraine has even passed this stage in either chamber.

Senators will soon be able to propose their amendments before voting on it substantively.

It is difficult to predict how long this stage will last.

Should the package adoption in Congress happen as quickly as possible, there is a chance that the House of Representatives may consider it as early as next week. Otherwise, the issue may be postponed until March.

The events of recent weeks on Capitol Hill have been a vivid testimony to the fact that the election campaign has completely captured the US political agenda.

The risk that Trump's position may continue to block the decisions needed for Ukraine in Congress only increases as the day of the 2024 US elections approaches.