Mid-March is approaching, and the US Congress has yet to pass a new major aid package for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing a noticeable shortage of key ammunition. Moreover, the activation of other players providing assistance to Ukraine is unlikely to offset the US aid, at least at the moment.

Read more about the chances of approval of the US aid package for Ukraine in the article by Volodymyr Dubovyk, the Director of the Center for International Studies – Trump builds obstacles: will Ukraine receive arms and financial aid from the US.

Few expected that the uncertainty regarding aid to Ukraine from the US would drag on like this.

Certainly, the US internal processes were on the surface, but it was still difficult to fully assess the scale of the decision-making paralysis, Congress dysfunction, the polarisation degree of American society in the presidential election year, the power of Donald Trump's influence on Republicans in Congress, and House leadership.

As for the Trump factor, there is no doubt that he will continue to have a negative impact on aid to Ukraine.

Trump's anti-Ukrainian position today is not just situational, driven by the needs of the election campaign. This position is established, consistent, and has been traced at least since 2016.

And there is no reason to hope that this position will change.

The prospect of Trump returning to the White House is frightening for Ukraine.

The administration of President Joe Biden also bears its share of responsibility for the current situation.

The first major White House's mistake was not anticipating the systematic, powerful, and consistent opposition from Republicans in approving a new aid package.

It looks like that the White House underestimated the opposition.

Consistent work with the opposition, especially with those who share the view of the need for further aid to Ukraine, building a certain common platform, was not done. Preparation for negotiations with Republicans on possible concessions, compromises was not of high quality.

The second important mistake was the lack of constant, methodical communication from the executive branch with American society regarding Russia's war against Ukraine in general and support for Kyiv in particular.

Since the vacuum is filled by those who actively promote their narrative, anti-Ukrainian theses have begun to replace pro-Ukrainian ones.

Only in recent months have Biden and his people begun to talk about the fact that assistance to Ukraine is actually in the interests of the United States and that the contribution with finances and weapons brings America great dividends.

Despite all the problems, expectations for the aid package for Ukraine in Congress remain positive.

Speaker Mike Johnson is currently under great pressure. On the one hand, it's understandable – from the Trump wing of his own party. And he comes himself from it. But there is also significant pressure from fellow party members who support aid to Ukraine.

Will the large aid package passed by the Senate be voted on in the House of Representatives? Most likely, no.

There is a risk of reducing the amount of aid.

Cutbacks may occur by reducing non-military assistance, also essential for Ukraine. Some of the projects currently circulating in the corridors of Congress are about this.

Be that as it may, there is hope that the pause, which has dragged on for too long, will soon end.