The abortion debate for Polish politicians has been fundamental for many years, and the approaching local elections are heating up emotions to the maximum.

A new scandal around banning abortions threatens the unity of the new coalition, according to Michał Kacewicz, the Biełsat publicist and journalist – Abortions that split the Polish government: why Tusk's coalition is cracking over "traditions."

The new phase of confrontation began after the Marshal of the Sejm, Szymon Hołownia, blocked work on bills liberalising abortion legislation.

A significant part of society hoped that the government of Donald Tusk, which came to power at the end of 2023, would introduce changes to the legislation to expand access to abortions, but this did not happen.

The Speaker believes that work on the abortion law should not begin before the local elections (7 and 21 April), and also notes that President Andrzej Duda will not sign any law liberalising access to abortions anyway, as he has repeatedly stated his objection.

He, his party Poland 2050, and the coalition Polish Peasants' Party are advocating for a compromise on abortions, enshrined in the 1993 law, which allows abortions only in certain cases.

In addition, the Speaker says he would like to hold a national referendum on liberalising the abortion law.

Neither Prime Minister Donald Tusk nor the left camp nor President Andrzej Duda agree with this.

Hołownia's Poland 2050 is participating in the local elections together with the Polish Peasants' Party, led by Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, the current Defence Minister.

They will fight for the rural, more conservative electorate in small towns, so they do not want to introduce any abortion liberalisation right before the elections. They are not planning even to start working on these bills.

This is understandable, but it turned out differently.

Hołownia has caused a storm by blocking work on the abortion law.

He has achieved the opposite effect to what he intended. The abortion issue has become part of the pre-election campaign for local government bodies.

The consequences of Hołownia's actions on abortions may affect his ratings. Although blocking the abortion liberalisation may help in local elections, especially to the coalition partner, the Polish Peasants' Party, it will be different in the presidential elections of 2025.

Hołownia is the only major politician who has announced his nomination for the presidential elections.

And the presidential candidate will have to seek as broad support as possible.

According to a survey conducted for Oko Press, up to 80% of voters from Hołownia's party from previous elections support the liberalisation of the abortion law.

The Sejm Marshal should pay his attention to it. Because young Poles and women expect it from him.

Tusk himself clearly uses the latest scandal in his political game.

Deep down, the Prime Minister realises that the presidential elections are sent to be held in 2025 and that there will be a showdown between Szymon Hołownia and a candidate from Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk.

So, it plays in Tusk's hand that the Speaker got involved in a serious conflict over the abortion, essentially an ideological dispute.

And as long as Speaker Szymon Hołownia loses because he allowed himself to be pushed into the ideological niche that Jarosław Kaczyński and the Law and Justice party had occupied until now.

Whether Polish women and men will benefit from this conflict remains to be seen.

For now, the Polish political scene has been shaken by the first serious conflict within the ruling coalition.