EU summit decision on Ukraine and Moldova could be complicated by Bosnia and Herzegovina's progress

Bosnia and Herzegovina's progress towards European Union accession could complicate EU leaders' decisions on Ukraine and Moldova at this week's summit.

As reported by Euractiv, the European Commission is expected to present a written report on Bosnia and Herzegovina and give oral assessments of Ukraine and Moldova at the meeting of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday, 21 March. Euractiv noted that the discussion of this issue at the summit may be delayed.

At present, it remains to be seen how European leaders will perceive the European Commission's recommendation to start talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina.

"There is still some uncertainty in the room, and that part of the text is still under brackets," an EU diplomat said commenting on the draft summit decision.

Bosnia is one step behind Ukraine and Moldova, and the start of EU accession talks is conditional on completing a range of reforms. The European Commission has recommended that Bosnia and Herzegovina start accession talks, and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the country has made "impressive steps".

However, the move came as a surprise to some observers, as a recent EU enlargement report noted Bosnia's limited progress, especially in electoral reforms.

Over the past week, several EU diplomats and officials have expressed concern about the EU's apparent shift away from a merit-based approach to enlargement. "The European Commission has taken a very political approach to the report," said one senior EU official.

"If it would have been honest and said that the criteria [had] not [been] reached, but we should move ahead because of necessity, it would be less problematic than [lying to us] that all is rosy and has improved," the official said.

Some countries, including France, the Netherlands and Denmark, expressed reservations about Bosnia's level of progress.

"Should EU leaders greenlight this, we will need to talk about what takes precedence – a merit-based process or geopolitical necessities," an EU diplomat told the media outlet.

Certain EU member states, such as Austria, Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia, believe that Ukraine and Moldova’s progress in the accession process should be synchronised with that of the Western Balkans. In recent weeks, they have lobbied for the next steps for Ukraine and Moldova to be linked to those of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Most EU member states, however, insist on treating all three countries equally.

"What we’re worried about is that we suddenly start tying countries together again, which is a mistake we’ve made in the past that has risked discrediting the whole process," said the fourth EU diplomat, referencing the Bulgarian veto on North Macedonia’s accession which also halted Albania's progress.