In 2022, Ukraine and the EU signed the Agreement on Road Freight Transport, also known as the "transport visa-free regime." This liberalisation lasted for a year, but in 2023, it was extended until June 2024.

European, primarily Polish, hauliers oppose this liberalisation.

Brussels couldn't ignore these protests. So, on 5 March, the European Commission proposed to prolong the Road Agreement with Ukraine, but with some amendments.

Read more about the concession to Polish haulers, that the European Commission suggests to Ukraine, in the column by Viktor Dovhan, the EU Delegation adviser – New rules of "transport visa-free regime": what Brussels proposes and whether it will help unlock the border.

The European Commission, among other things, proposes to add a new safeguard clause, the columnist points out.

In case the national road transport market in a specific geographical area sees a major disturbance that can be attributed to the Agreement, the agreement could be suspended in that geographical area.

This clause is of utmost importance, Viktor Dovhan emphasises, as it is obvious that this should be a concession to Polish hauliers.

The question arises: how likely is it that this norm will be applied in practice?

"To suspend the agreement on the 'transport visa-free regime,' confirmation is needed that the share of Ukrainian road freight has significantly increased and this harms the local (for example, Polish) business," notes the EU Delegation advisor.

Does the current situation meet these requirements?

Indeed, Ukrainian exports by road to the EU have significantly increased since the agreement came into force. In the first year, the growth amounted to about 60% by volume and approximately one-third by value.

The expert informs that monthly exports to the EU by road have increased by 300 thousand tons more than before the agreement. Imports to Ukraine have also increased by the same amount.

Imports to Ukraine in value terms though have almost tripled compared to exports from the country. Thus, according to Viktor Dovhan, imports to Ukraine amount to over 700 million euros per month, while exports amount to 250 million euros.

The situation, however, has gradually begun to level off, notes the EU Delegation adviser. Currently, transit of grain through Poland amounts to only 370 thousand tons per month – 5% of the total export volume from Ukraine.

Thanks to Ukraine's maritime drones, it has secured a maritime corridor from the Odesa ports. Also, Ukraine exports goods through the Danube despite the shelling. In 2024, Ukraine once again does not depend on anyone in terms of its exports, and the market is noticeably balancing out, the columnist notes.

"This allows us to assume that without a new blockade of the Black Sea corridor, Ukrainian transit of goods through Poland will no longer have such peaks as in the first year of full-scale invasion, when the ports were not working.

So, official Kyiv needs to agree to such a concession in the Road Agreement. These norms no longer threaten its hauliers," Viktor Dovhan is convinced.

There are grounds to predict, the expert warns, that these EU concessions will only anger Polish hauliers.

According to the columnist, Kyiv should not agree to all concessions. He proposes to address the European Commission with a proposal to conduct an urgent screening, a cluster analysis, including agricultural policy and transport.

This is necessary to reject manipulations regarding the quality of Ukrainian agricultural products and losses of hauliers. And the positive recommendation of the European Commission to prolong the "transport visa-free regime" only strengthens Kyiv's negotiating position.