Why Moldova's pro-Western course is still under threat

While there is a clear consensus in Ukraine about its EU future, Moldova is still divided and largely pro-Russian. A survey released this week confirms that supporters of the alliance with Russia in Moldova still outnumber opponents.

Moldovan sociologists and experts emphasise that the majority of Moldovan citizens are still pro-European, with only a third of "Putin admirers."

Read more about the processes in Moldova in the analysis by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's edtor – One third of Pro-Russians: How Moldova balances between EU, war and Russian union.

This week, several media outlets in Ukraine and Moldova have published news that half of Moldovan citizens are ready to vote for EU accession in a referendum, as well as the majority of those who would go to the polling stations.

The survey is quite relevant and practical. It is most likely that this year, a referendum on the EU is set in Moldova simultaneously with the presidential elections.

Its result looks actually very alarming.

Only slightly less than half, 49.9%, of voters were ready to support EU membership.

This number is particularly striking compared to Ukrainian surveys with over 90% EU support.

Moreover, Moldovans were actually asked to choose in this survey between the European Union and the union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (Eurasian Economic Union), and 30% of respondents in Moldova stated that they would vote for the Russian Union. Another 20% were undecided or stated that they would not vote.

30% for the union with Russia looks tremendously high, but it is not the worst. In the event that Moldovan citizens had to vote only for the Eurasian Economic Union, 41.5% of respondents would vote for and 38.9% against.

Thus, in a hypothetical referendum on joining the Russian union, this initiative would win! The idea of joining the European Union would also win if asked separately, without mentioning the possible integration with Russia.

A significant part of Moldova's population still lives in the space of Russian propaganda.

The Russian mythology, marginalised in Ukraine, reaches wide masses in Moldova.

Iulian Groza, the Executive Director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE), acknowledges that the majority of Moldova's pro-Russian electorate have clear anti-Western, and therefore anti-Ukrainian, beliefs.

"These people do not recognise the aggression against Ukraine. They seek justification for Putin's actions, etc," he says.

In addition, a significant number of Moldova's population under the influence of propaganda supports "friendship with everyone" and are ready to vote for integration with both Russia and the EU at the same time.

Experts hope that with systematic informational work, the popularity of the pro-Western vector could be raised, as two-thirds of the population are potentially pro-European.

But in reality, Russian propaganda is more consistent.

Еhe staunchest EU supporter in Moldova is its current government. And if Moldova's government pushes for EU integration without active voter support, will they not be overthrown in the next elections? There is no reason for panic at the moment.

Although survey data are causing concern.

Moldovan elections have a pleasant feature that gives us quite strong confidence that there is no threat to Maia Sandu's victory – the cahnce to vote for citizens living in Europe.