UK anticipates Ukraine will escalate long-range strikes on Russia

The UK Defence Chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin asserts that Ukraine will increase the number of long-range strikes on Russian territory, as the influx of Western military aid aims to assist Kyiv in waging war in "much stronger ways."

Radakin acknowledges in an interview with Financial Times that Ukraine's defence is currently influenced by pessimistic sentiments, noting that the country is facing a tough fight against advancing Russian forces. 

However, the British commander, a key figure in Western military support for Kyiv, emphasised that such a bleak "snapshot" of the war doesn't account for long-term trends that favour Kyiv more.

He said that these trends include recent packages of military aid from the US and Europe, Ukraine's increasingly successful long-range strikes, and "Moscow’s total failure to choke off Kyiv’s vital grain exports via the Black Sea."

"The danger with any snapshot is that it [ignores] where we are now with where we will be in next couple of years," Radakin said, adding people should stop "feting Russia" and believing it "somehow has got major advantages," he said.

Radakin did not express any overt reservations about Ukrainian attacks and sabotage raids inside Russia. "As Ukraine gains more capabilities for the long-range fight . . . its ability to continue deep operations will [increasingly] become a feature of the war," Radakin said, adding that such strikes will "definitely have an effect".

After months of uncertainty regarding the West's strategy in Ukraine, Radakin spoke optimistically about a situation where all NATO countries are "talking about spending more money."

"I recognise that this is all less comfortable if you are in Kyiv. You also have to acknowledge that Russia has been able to conduct more effective long-range strikes than last year," he noted.

Radakin also responded to criticism that the West lacks a comprehensive plan to help Kyiv achieve victory and only provided sufficient military aid to prevent defeat.

"Don’t expect anyone to say publicly ‘this is the plan’ and A, B and C are now going to happen," Radakin said. Some elements of the military approach to Ukraine, he said, "will be dictated by a tactical or operational advantage, and some also depend on more foundational aspects."

Some of these factors will "mature much more strongly next year than this year," said Radakin.

Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser to the US President, confirmed media reports that Ukraine has already received ATACMS missiles in March.

As reported on 24 April, US President Joe Biden signed legislation enacted by Congress that provides for about US$61 billion in additional military and economic aid to Ukraine, as well as help for other US allies.