How Georgian government provokes final break with the West and whether society can stop it

The founder and honourary chairman of Georgia's ruling party Georgian Dream Bidzina Ivanishvili has announced that the country will join the European Union in 2030.

Meanwhile, the Georgian parliament has passed in the first reading the draft law On Transparency of Foreign Influence, which could permanently close the EU doors for Georgia.

Both the EU and the US have warned Tbilisi that this law will only distance Georgia from the West.

The controversial draft law aims to achieve what the Georgian government wants. Read more in the article by Yurii Panchenko, the European Pravda editor – The illusion of European integration: Will Georgian government be able to change the country's foreign course.

Why then is Georgian Dream pushing the situation to a crisis when nearly 90% of Georgia's citizens support EU membership? And why is it doing so six months ahead of the crucial parliamentary election?

The most common explanation is that the Georgian government actually has reasons to worry about the outcome of the parliamentary election. which is set to be held in the autumn of 2024. This is going to be the first election without the first-past-the-post voting. So, the government will not have that resource to strengthen its majority.

At the same time, the US and the EU have been pressing Georgia to carry out judicial and electoral reforms – steps that have also not contributed to the Georgian Dream victory.

In this situation, the official Tbilisi wants to give it all.

First, create conditions that guarantee their victory in the election, which in a law that allows controlling the civil sector and independent media.

And only after the elections, negotiate with the West about the conditions for recognising these elections and maintaining at least the illusion of continuing the dialogue on EU accession.

We can see that such negotiations are quite possible based on Bidzina Ivanishvili's statements at a pro-government rally in support of the "foreign agents law" on 29 April, which can be interpreted as a supplement to the negotiating position.

The main likelihood though still seems to be a final turn by Tbilisi towards Russia.

There is another aspect that could kill any further compromise with the West. The key argument of the Georgian government in favour of its draft law is that only it can prevent a repeat of the events of 2004-2012 (the times of President Mikheil Saakashvili), when "people appointed from abroad, not elected by the people, were in power."

According to Bidzina Ivanishvili, the Saakashvili party United National Movement will "strictly answer for all crimes committed by them against the Georgian state and the Georgian people over two decades" after the election.

If the ruling party decides to stick to this promise, then achieving any compromise with the West will be impossible.

The draft law is scheduled to be passed on 17 May – Day of Sanctity and Integrity of the Family. The Georgian Church will hold a march in the capital for the traditional family.

It is highly likely that it may lead to clashes if both interest groups march close to one another. But it looks like Georgian Dream is sending a clear signal to its opponents by choosing the voting date, trying to intimidate them.

Currently, the Georgian opposition is divided. However, Georgian society has the potential for self-organisation and struggle for its future, which it has demonstrated for several days in a row.