What consequences European parliament election bear for Ukraine?

Year after year, European elections, specifically voting for Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), used to be aside of major politics.

It resulted into an unwritten rule: the outcomes of European elections did not affect national politics because practice showed that national elections could produce completely different numbers.

But 2024 has become a truly historic year.

Read more about the European Parliament election results and their consequences in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, a European Pravda editor – Europe leans to the right: What European election results mean and why they are historic.

This year, the pan-European campaign, though not in all countries, has become an event that genuinely determines development.

And the main topics of discussion has been the rise of the far-right.

Indeed, there are many among the far-right parties that openly or covertly support Russia or have done so until recently.

The far-right exists in many EU countries, from Poland to Italy. They often promote Kremlin interests and narratives the most. These parties typically belong to the Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the European Parliament.

However, there are right-wing parties without the "far" prefix.

Another pan-European political force, often incorrectly labeled as "far-right" in the media, is the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

In fact, this is largely a coalition of traditional right-wing parties, generally mild Eurosceptics who support a strong economic European Union but resist further centralisation of the EU and prefer more national power. Another common feature of the vast majority of conservatives is their anti-Russian stance. They tend to support Ukraine in its war against Russia, including Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) and Italy's Brothers of Italy.

The third political force is the European People's Party (EPP), the largest transnational group in the EU.

These are center-right politicians who have recently shown a further shift to the right. EPP members form the core of the "Ukraine support group." Ursula von der Leyen is also an EPP member. Comparing them to ID doesn't make sense, but both groups are on the right spectrum of politics.

All right-wing groups without exception will gain weight in the new European Parliament.

Ultimately, we will have a European Parliament where right-wing parties collectively are likely to hold a mathematical majority. But the situation for Ukraine is far from the worst. We retain strong support in the European Parliament.

Support for Ukraine is now truly one of the main political markers for Europeans, so anti-Ukrainian parties will not have a chance to go with the flow.

We can be sure that the new coalition will be pro-Ukrainian.

The shift to the right in these elections will in no way undermine our support from the European representative body.

It is most likely that the new coalition will mirror the current majority (EPP, center-left and liberals). Ursula von der Leyen will be able to find enough votes to be re-elected as President of the European Commission, which is also a good scenario for us.

While at the pan-European level, we can talk about a moderate and not catastrophic result for the far-right, the situation in individual countries is quite different, causing concern.

In Poland, the anti-Ukrainian Confederation has taken third place with 12% support. The Alternative for Germany has come second with almost 16%. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria has ended up as the leader. The National Rally in France has done so as well. In some places, the European election results caused a real earthquake.