How the conflict between pro-Western forces in Bulgaria strengthens "friends of Russia"

On 9 June, while all EU countries were electing a new European Parliament, Bulgaria was electing its national parliament.

It has been the sixth elections in the past three years.

The country has been unable to form a stable government due to the conflict between pro-Western forces.

Read more about the results of the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria and the three scenarios for the country's development in the article by Serhii Herasymchuk and Volodymyr-Nazarii Havrysh, the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" – Conflict between friends of Ukraine: Why elections did not bring Bulgaria closer to overcoming the crisis.

Seven political parties have entered the 50th Bulgarian parliament, most of which were already in the 49th National Assembly.

In first place, with 68 mandates, is GERB-SDS – conservatives and Euro-Atlanticists, part of the previous government coalition.

In second place, with 45 seats, is DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms), a centrist, Euro-Atlanticist party led by an oligarch who supported the previous government coalition.

On the election day, GERB leader Boyko Borisov openly stated to journalists that his bloc would form a coalition with DPS (even before the results).

However, the election results showed that this coalition is currently short by at least eight votes, making it tough, if not impossible, to form such a coalition.

Meanwhile, the pro-Western PP-DB bloc is going through dramatic changes. The bloc has received 40 mandates – 23 seats fewer compared to the previous assembly.

Due to the severe election defeat, one of its leaders, Hristo Ivanov, resigned as head of the party Yes, Bulgaria! (one of the three parties forming the Democratic Bulgaria union) and refused a seat in parliament.

The situation is equally interesting for the pro-Russian party Revival. It has managed to improve its representation in parliament again, gaining 38 seats, five more than in the previous parliament.

Party leader Kostadin Kostadinov told journalists that his political force would not support any government unless it was formed by Revival.

A new right-wing Euro-Atlanticist political party, Ensemble, has unexpectedly entered parliament with 13 seats.

They have declared their refusal to form a coalition directly with any of the represented parties but did not rule out dialogue and cooperation on various legislative projects.

This party declares differences with pro-Russian Revival, stating that they "categorically and clearly" support Bulgaria's membership in the EU and NATO.

However, they cannot be classified as Euro-Atlanticists either. Party leaders claim that the best solution for Russia's war against Ukraine should be "Ukraine's neutrality and the status quo" (whatever that means).

If a miracle happens and the two largest political forces in parliament manage to recruit eight more MPs, we can expect temporary government stabilisation at least until the end of the year.

It is clear even now though that snap elections have not resolved Bulgaria's political crisis.

Nonetheless, regardless of how this coalition and election saga unfolds, we can expect at least some support for Ukraine-related issues from around 150+ (out of 240) Bulgarian MPs.

Additionally, the interim government of Dimitar Glavchev, even formed by the pro-Russian President Radev, has shown that it can act in a pro-Ukrainian direction.

However, a loger political crisis could lead to the strengthening of pro-Russian Revival and a decrease in the ratings of pro-Western PP-DB.