What threats do Orbán's "demands" on Transcarpathia pose and what should Ukraine do?
This week, at the official opening of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations, Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna has publicly mentioned 11 issues raised by the Hungarian side to strengthen the protection of national minority rights.
She said that "We are now sincerely committed to fully implementing the 11 issues raised."
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán agreed to the start of accession negotiations only if Ukraine publicly committed to fulfilling 11 demands from Budapest regarding the rights of the Hungarian minority in the Zakarpattia region of Ukraine.
Read more in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, a European Pravda editor - Orbán's 11 demands: How Hungary crossed red lines again in blackmailing Ukraine on its path to the EU.
Hungary's idea is to restore the norms that were in place during the era of Viktor Yanukovych, the president ousted by the 2014 revolution.
In international politics, it is not customary to "demand" actions from a sovereign state. However, from the outset, Budapest's position was that Kyiv had to fulfil these requests. Even in official correspondence, it was referred to as a "list of demands".
The list is "live" and in some cases, its literal reading no longer reflects current demands.
This provision is also provided for in current Ukrainian legislation: the relevant clause refers to cities and villages with a "significant number" of minority representatives (at least 15%) and with "traditional" minority residence (at least 10% over the last 100 years).
Secondly, Orbán demands the abolition of the 10% norm in principle, claiming that if even a small number lived in an area traditionally, then it is to be considered "Hungarian" territory.
Thirdly, Hungary also demands that Ukraine abandon the decision-making process conducted by local councils in this regard and make the assignment of the "historically Hungarian" status automatic. This last point, incidentally, makes some sense: there have been cases where local councils refused to recognise this status despite the necessary percentage being met.
Fourthly, Hungary insists that only figures from the 2001 census should be used, although the number of Hungarians living in Zakarpattia has almost halved since then.
The key point is that the Orbán government explicitly calls Ukraine’s refusal of this demand decisive for the entire set of 11 demands. Without it, they say, discussing the rest is pointless.
This is because Orbán sees that the proportion of the ethnically Hungarian population in Zakarpattia has fallen below 10%. Now Budapest sees a chance to use a historical opportunity to blackmail Ukraine into reminding these people of their Hungarian descent.
After all, some of these demands are clearly inadequate and cross red lines.
Fortunately, the list of demands is NOT FIXED in Ukraine's negotiation framework with the EU. This is a key legal point.
Some unpleasant details did enter the framework.