How Biden's exit from the 2024 presidential race could help democrats
On Sunday, US President Joe Biden announced a stunning decision to pull out of the presidential race.
One of the few who had learned about this shortly before the announcement, albeit just before, unlike the vast majority of his associates, was Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Biden is now promoting as his successor.
The problem is that, according to electoral ratings, Harris is probably the worst choice for a presidential candidate, of course, following Biden himself. She would need a miracle to win, which would be difficult to achieve in just slightly more than three months ahead of the election.
Read more in an article by Sergiy Sydorenko, a European Pravda's editor – Election without Biden which Trump wins: What the US president's belated decision changes.
Talks about Biden potentially pulling out of the election were heard throughout the primaries.
It seemed like a political strategy back then and a rather good one. The president wins the nomination, absorbs all the criticism from Trump’s team, and following the primaries, finds a reason to pull out of the race citing health reasons and proposes a replacement to his party members.
This would force Trump to completely overhaul his campaign, as criticism based on Biden's age and policies would lose relevance. Instead, the new candidate could leverage all the groundwork of the campaign against Trump.
European Pravda had heard about this idea multiple times.
But it lacked one crucial element – Biden's agreement. The president believed in his ability to defeat Trump, dismissed reports about negative polling trends for him and even his poor performance in debates didn't change his mind.
What became the last straw that made the president radically change his mind within a few hours this Saturday evening is not known for sure. However, it is worth noting that Joe Biden contracted Covid last week. Additionally, Biden announced his exit only in writing and chose not to go on TV.
Nonetheless, the time for a strategically candidate replacement has passed.
Even though it is still 3.5 months to go until the election day (a full campaign period in many countries), in American realities, this is critically short.
Essentially, current US Vice President Kamala Harris is the inevitable successor to Biden in the election.
On one hand, nearly 80% of Democrats approved of her candidacy if Biden were to withdraw under current conditions, according to recent polls. Additionally, choosing Kamala Harris is politically coherent, as voters who voted for Biden in the primaries also voted for her. It is also possible that it will be legally easier for her to use the funds donated to the Biden-Harris campaign by sponsors.
On the other hand, nominating Kamala Harris has significant drawbacks. The crucial is her low popularity.
Thus, it is currently highly likely that Trump will win the presidential duel with Harris.
However, even in this scenario, Biden's exit still matters.
The fact is that Biden's decision not to run started affecting not only the president's rating but also his party's overall. And even to use all chances for a turnaround in the congressional campaign, the president needed to make this move.
For the US and Ukraine, the question of the House majority is crucial. If the Democrats lose it as well, it would mean that President Trump would have a loyal Congress and would not face significant constraints in radically changing US policy. This could plunge the US and the world into a new reality, one we would rather not test.