How Kamala Harris outplays Trump and why Republicans got nervous

Tuesday, 23 July 2024 —

US President Joe Biden's historic decision to exit the presidential race and support Vice President Kamala Harris has mobilised the Democrats. They believe they now have a new chance to win the presidential elections.

Despite Harris's relatively low approval among voters, the mere change of candidate has been a significant gift for the Democratic Party.

Read more about Kamala Harris's advantages and disadvantages in her confrontation with Donald Trump in an article by Yurii Stasiuk, a Yale University student and deputy editor of Yale Daily News – The intrigue returns: How Harris’s first campaign days added drive to the american elections.

Biden's announcement of ending his campaign instantly united the Democratic Party around Kamala Harris.

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Top Democrats, seriously considered as alternatives to Biden for the presidential elections, have already endorsed Kamala Harris's candidacy, with some announcing their readiness to actively work on her campaign.

The best indicator was not the leaders' statements, but the party members' donations.

More than 888,000 Americans have donated to Harris, with over 500,000 making their first donation of this presidential election cycle. They saw no point in donating to Biden's campaign (with Harris as vice president) even before the disastrous debates.

Business also supported the replacement.

In short, voters, activists, politicians and the Democratic Party elites have emerged from the lethargy of the past weeks.

The primary demographic where Democrats can gain new votes with Harris's candidacy is Generation Z, those under 30. Young people in the US traditionally prefer Democrats but rarely vote. Harris could change that, not only because her age is not as "off-putting" to young voters.

Harris's supporters have long been working to make her as "memeable" as possible.

There are also two other groups Democrats have high hopes for: women and Black voters.

However, Harris does have challenging groups.

The Vice President may perform worse than Biden among moderate white voters, especially non-college-educated men.

Even within the Democratic Party, there are doubts about whether the United States is ready to elect not just the first female president, but a president whose mother was born in India and father in Jamaica.

Democrats have already prepared arguments for this group. Harris was California's prosecutor and distinguished herself with a successful fight against crime, crucial for moderate white voters.

The key is not to overestimate Harris's early successes. The Democrats are still in a difficult position.

On the other hand, although Biden's exit has also mobilised the Republican Party, it’s important not to overestimate Trump either.

An assassination attempt has indeed heroised Trump in the eyes of some, but his radical rhetoric and plans alienate a significant portion of Americans, especially moderates, many of whom still cannot forgive his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results and hold him responsible for the 6 January 2021, storming of the US Capitol.

Now Trump also has to defend his age and suitability for a four-year presidential term.

Thus, while the Democratic Party's prospects in the presidential election remain very uncertain, they are significantly better than they were a week ago.

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