Estonian intelligence does not believe Russia will exhaust war resources in Ukraine by 2025

Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Military Intelligence Centre of Estonia, believes that despite significant losses on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia has enough resources to continue fighting in 2025 and beyond.

Kiviselg noted in an interview with ERR that Russia is currently failing to achieve the objectives of its summer offensive campaign, indicating that Ukraine may be able to hold the defence during the summer. As an example, he cited the recent repulsion of a large-scale Russian offensive on the Karakhove front in Donetsk Oblast.

"This week's attempt might be another desperate effort to push through and try to impact the rear of the Ukrainians so that in other areas where active fighting is taking place, Ukrainians would be forced to withdraw simply because their logistical routes are cut off somewhere," he suggested.

At the same time, the Estonian intelligence representative warned against optimistic assessments about the alleged depletion of Russia's military equipment and forces.

"Unfortunately, I cannot assert that Russia will definitely run out of military equipment by 2025 because they also have some partners or allies who will still provide or send them resources for waging war, whether it be North Korea or Iran," Kiviselg explained.

However, he added that with the current pace of combat and losses, "it will be very difficult for Russia to replenish its personnel and equipment": in June alone, it was losing between 1,000 and 1,800 people at the front every day.

"But at the same time, Russia's population is still so large that there is currently no trend towards significant changes at the front," Kiviselg concluded.

Last week, Kiviselg stated that Russia maintains the intensity of attacks in the combat zone in Ukraine despite suffering considerable losses and gradual supply of Western armament to Kyiv.