How first Western sanctions changed Georgia's political landscape

The parliamentary elections in Georgia are set to be held in less than three months.

The scenario with the ruling party Georgian Dream retain its parliamentary majority (without blatant rigging) was considered quite realistic until recently.

But now everything has changed.

Read more about what could prevent Georgia's ruling party from confidently winning the parliamentary elections in the article by Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda editor – Georgia preparing for a change of power? How the conflict between Tbilisi and the West helps the oppposition.

Georgian elections stand out in a way that a significant number of citizens tended to vote not so much for someone as against someone. And this is one of the key components of the long-term success of Georgian Dream.

After all, it's not so important to fulfil promises made to voters, but simply to scare them with the return to power of former president Mikheil Saakashvili and his United National Movement party. Or to position themselves against the "global party of war," which primarily referred to the "nationals."

The emergence of a "third force," politicians not associated with either the previous or the current government, could have been a way out of the situation.

However, all attempts to establish themselves in this niche have so far failed.

As a result, the Georgian opposition seemed weaker than ever at the beginning of 2024.

For a long time, the ratings of Georgian Dream seemed Teflon-coated. Despite all the scandals, including those related to pro-Russian policies, the party's rating almost never fell below 40% and sometimes reached up to 45%.

Thus, neither sharp statements by Western politicians nor mass protests could undermine the ratings of Georgian Dream for a long time.

But it seems that this has now happened.

A sociological survey conducted by Edison Research shows an unprecedented collapse in the popularity of the ruling party. If parliamentary elections were held tomorrow, 32.4% of voters would vote for Georgian Dream. This figure also includes a small spoiler party People's Power, which formally left the ruling party, thus allowing it to criticise the West more harshly.

Of course, several more surveys are needed to make big conclusions, but the current one has every chance to become a watershed that first recorded a new political reality in Georgia.

Why did the drop in popularity happen now and not a few months earlier when Georgia was actively experiencing protest actions against the law on foreign agents? Most likely, the first real steps by Western countries influenced voters' moods is the cancellation of military exercises and the freezing of funding for government programmes. Additionally, there was the de facto suspension of Georgia's EU accession.

After this, it became simply impossible to insist that nothing was happening in relations with the West.

Overall, the Edison Research survey showed a fundamental change in Georgia's political landscape.

The 2024 parliamentary elections will be held under different rules than previous ones. For the first time, they will be conducted only by the proportional system, without single-member districts. These changes increase the opposition's chances of success.

Opposition forces, which have a chance to overcome the electoral threshold, collectively have more than 50% (specifically – 57%), which virtually deprives Georgian Dream of its chances.

The "passing" ratings of most opposition forces can become a powerful factor in mobilising voters.

The revolutionary survey data has not yet led to a change in the election strategy of Georgian Dream.

The only thing that has changed is that, no longer having the opportunity to ignore the conflict with the West, the ruling party now claims that after Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, everything will change (this assertion seems very doubtful, especially considering the Georgian government's active involvement of China in the country's strategic assets).

Accordingly, the situation is heading towards very dirty and dangerous elections.