How Dodik attempts to destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina and whether the West will allow a new war
The situation in the Western Balkans, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), is heating up.
Despite warnings from the international community, President of the Republika Srpska (an entity within BiH) Milorad Dodik has started implementing his threats of "peaceful separation" from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Read more on the prospects of a new war in the Balkans in the article by Volodymyr Tsybulnyk, the interim Chargé d'Affaires of Ukraine in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2018) – Plan to launch a war in the Balkans: How 'Putin's friend' took the first step to ruin BiH.
This week, Dodik has presented the Agreement on Regulating Relations Between the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in Accordance with the Dayton Agreement and International Acts, as well as Information on the Necessity of Separation.
The "Agreement" itself consists of only 15 articles and is less than four pages long, while the "Information" barely fits into 45 pages.
The documents announced by President of the Republika Srpska Dodik are to be approved by the National Assembly of RS and then, as stated, presented to the FBiH (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the other component of BiH) authorities.
These documents are to be submitted not for approval or consideration, but merely for signing, as if the Federation already agrees with the "Agreement."
The "Agreement" indeed resembles an international treaty. It looks like Moscow diplomats who recently opened a "Russian Embassy Office" in Banja Luka, the capital of RS, have also helped with it.
There are some crucial details though.
For example, Article 7 is a pinnacle of political casuistry. It reveals the main reason for the peaceful separation: "the impossibility of renewing the General Framework Agreement." According to the document's authors, the Dayton Accords do not guarantee the equality of the entities and constitutional peoples of BiH.
Indeed, the Dayton Peace Accords, which ended the war in BiH and became the legal basis for the current state, no longer meet contemporary needs and require significant updates. This has been a topic of discussion for years. The problems lie not so much in guaranteeing the rights of the constitutional peoples as in representing "other" nationalities.
While the "Agreement" raises many questions, even more arise regarding the "Information on the Necessity to Initiate the Process of Regulating Relations Between RS and FBiH in Accordance with the Dayton Accords and International Acts."
In short, this document aims to prove that the Dayton Accords led Dodik to attempt the secession of the Republika Srpska.
It's clear: a considerable amount of work has been done, aimed at destroying not only BiH but also peace and stability in the region.
It's easy to imagine how the Kremlin dictator is rubbing his hands in glee. The Balkans indeed might face a new big war.
To prepare a favourable ground for presenting the "Agreement" to FBiH authorities, Dodik ensured the National Assembly of RS approved another dangerous document – the Declaration on the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People, which was endorsed by the All-Serb Assembly.
However, it seems Dodik has not achieved his desired outcome, but rather the opposite.
High Representative Christian Schmidt openly stated that he must take measures provided by his mandate to ensure peace and stability in the country. EUFOR units are mobilising.
It appears that the presentation of the "Agreement" and the approval of the Declaration were Dodik's last arguments, as his situation is indeed poor.
Sanctions, reduced funding for the Republika Srpska, growing dissatisfaction with the standard of living and only verbal support from Russia...
The coming weeks will provide a definitive answer to what Dodik's plan entails.