How Trump's possible victory affects China's plans regarding Ukraine
In a situation where official China's statements are often vague and filled with ideological rhetoric, the works of leading Chinese scholars become an important source for studying Beijing's policy.
For this reason, it's worth paying attention to a recent article by Professor Huang Jing (黄靖) of Shanghai International Studies University, who examined the consequences for China if Donald Trump were re-elected as US President.
Read more to understand what conclusions Ukraine might draw from Huang Jing's article, in the column by Yurii Poita, a visiting research fellow at the Taiwanese Institute for National Defense and Security Research, and Tetiana Ishchyk, a New Geopolitics Research Network intern – Dependence on Trump: Why China is not interested in ending war in Ukraine.
According to the authors, the key point of the Chinese professor's work is that a possible agreement between the US and Russia over Ukraine, which Donald Trump seeks to achieve, could lead to improved US-Russian relations and, ultimately, create conditions for a US-Russia alliance against China.
"Since this could pose serious risks to China, resolving the war might be risky for Beijing," write Poita and Ishchyk.
However, they caution that it is currently unknown how widespread this viewpoint is among Chinese experts and government circles.
Given that Huang Jing has significant experience researching Sino-American relations, Ukrainian experts believe his opinion might reflect ongoing discussions within the Chinese government and expert community.
Considering this, the authors note that Ukrainian experts should take this perspective into account when analysing Beijing's logic and actions regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and the possibility of involving China in Ukraine's peace formula and negotiation process.
Huang Jing calls the formation of a US-Russian alliance against China the Nixon 2.0 scenario, drawing an analogy to US President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972. It resulted in normalising the relations with China, driving a wedge between China and the Soviet Union and gaining significant advantages in the Cold War against the Soviet Union.
The political scientist believes that with Donald Trump in Office, conditions might emerge for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine for a ceasefire, which would worsen China's strategic environment, as the US would begin to approach Russia and even initiate a "global strategic pivot."
"Another important point is that the author significantly downplays Ukraine's agency," the authors analyse.
In their opinion, Ukraine should draw the following conclusions from the Chinese professor's article:
- Regardless of the realism of the described scenario, the thinking logic of China's intellectual circles is worth studying and analysing, as it can help understand China's true, not just declared, intentions and predict its future actions.
- Even if the Nixon 2.0 scenario currently looks difficult to make it happen, theoretical discussions about it could reinforce the perception among China's leadership that peace in Ukraine carries potential risks for its interests.