Why Georgian government doesn’t believe in its leadership ahead of crucial election

This week can be considered one of the most important in Georgia's political life. The country has officially entered the election campaign, with a new parliament set to be elected on 26 October.

The ruling party has presented its "dream team" candidate list, which turned out to be quite revealing.

The Georgian Dream party has announced the return of its founder and honourary leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, to major politics. He tops the electoral list.

Bidzina Ivanishvili had repeatedly stated his desire to permanently retire from political life. Very significant reasons were needed to make him reconsider.

However, Ivanishvili's return wasn't the only surprising element of this list, as noted in the article by Amiran Khevtsuriani, a professor at the Georgian Technical University and founder of the Georgian-Ukrainian Center – Ivanishvili's return: why Georgia's ruling party is bracing for unpleasant surprises in the election.

Including the founder and honourary head of the Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has always been viewed as the party's "trump card and savior-messiah," indicates a sense of uncertainty within the government.

This is even though opinion polls conducted by pro-government TV channels give Georgian Dream 60% support.

An analysis of the list suggests that the Georgian government isn’t interested in any significant changes. However, some "new blood" has been introduced. For example, the top twenty includes Olympic gold medalists Lasha Talakhadze and Geno Petriashvili, as well as several figures primarily "imported" from business.

Nevertheless, more important and surprising than the list itself is the ruling party’s election policy, which has left even its own supporters uncertain.

The promises made by Bidzina Ivanishvili at rallies have been so scandalous that they shocked a significant part of civil society, as well as – crucially – Georgia’s Western partners.

For instance, Ivanishvili announced the persecution of the opposition party United National Movement and its disappearance from Georgian politics, along with its "satellites," immediately after the parliamentary election.

The Georgian Dream aims to completely cleanse the opposition’s political field, establishing a one-party dictatorship.

In Ambrolauri, Ivanishvili also made another important statement regarding the highly sensitive and painful issue for Georgian society – the restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity.

In short, he declared that gaining the maximum public support and achieving a constitutional majority are essential preconditions for restoring territorial integrity.

However, he did not specify how he intends to achieve this, limiting himself to vague statements and "inspired anticipation of opportunities."

A noteworthy point: despite the extremely strained relations with the West, the Georgian Dream is running with the motto "With dignity to Europe," promising that the country will join the EU by 2030.

For a significant part of the population, this strategy seems outright absurd, especially in light of increasingly harsh criticism from Western partners.

All of these factors point to one thing: the situation in Georgia is extremely troubling, and in the lead-up to the election, signs of severe confrontation are emerging.

For the Georgian Dream, not just the victory of the opposition but even the loss of an absolute majority is unacceptable. Moreover, statements about the need for a constitutional majority reveal how insecure the government feels.

The conclusions are discouraging: the chances that "hotheads will back down" and that the election will take place within constitutional boundaries are rapidly diminishing.

Georgia is heading into a very dangerous period. The way the country navigates this time could determine its future for many years to come.