Why Georgia's new concessions to Russia are dangerous for Ukraine

On 14 September, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the honourary leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party, stated the need to apologise "to our Ossetian brothers" for the war of 2008 during a campaign rally in Gori. This statement, made before Georgia's decisive parliamentary election, aligns with Kremlin rhetoric.

Russia fully blames Georgia, particularly its then-president Mikheil Saakashvili, for starting the war. However, while criticising Saakashvili, the current Georgian government had not previously crossed this red line.

How this statement will affect the election, and what threats does it pose to Ukraine? Read more in the detailed analysis by Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda editor – How Georgia's government is shifting responsibility for 2008 war away from Russia and what it means for Ukraine.

So far, Russian officials have avoided addressing Tbilisi’s shift in stance. The South Ossetian separatists have also remained silent. Only the "Abkhazian Foreign Ministry" has responded to Ivanishvili's statement about apologising and ending the "fratricidal conflict" from the Georgian side. They expressed hope that this statement would be backed by "real steps toward reconciliation, based on reassessing past mistakes and apologising to the peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, ceasing political and economic pressure, and signing a peace treaty."

On the other hand, Ivanishvili's proposal has predictably provoked a sharp reaction from Georgia's opposition and society.

Given that such a statement is unlikely to be well-received in Georgian society, why are they raising it now?

First of all, the issue of the possible reintegration of Georgia is one of the key topics in Georgian Dream's election campaign. The party has issued a statement explaining why they need a constitutional majority in the new parliament. One of the reasons is the "peaceful restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity."

One key argument for a possible reintegration is the rumour of a large, comprehensive agreement between Georgia’s government and Moscow. The apology statement, in this context, is perceived by Georgian society as preparation for reunification, thus supporting the main message of the Georgian government.

Moreover, Ivanishvili may be "testing" Georgian society’s readiness for compromises with Russia. Finally, the statement might have been made at Russia’s request, where they want to bind the Georgian government to them before the elections.

Ivanishvili's statement will likely worsen Georgian Dream's electoral prospects. In such conditions, massive rigging of the election is expected, which suits the Kremlin perfectly. Unrecognised elections by the West would end Georgia's EU integration path and make alignment with Russia the only option.

Unfortunately, statements about the 2008 Russian-Georgian war are also relevant for today's Ukraine. Georgia's shift toward Russia is useful for Moscow to pressure Ukraine's Western partners. This rapprochement sends a signal to many Western populists, including Donald Trump, suggesting that if Georgia, after 16 years, wants to be friends with Russia again, perhaps the same could happen with Ukraine.

Those looking for arguments to stop supporting Ukraine will eagerly use the Georgian precedent if Ivanishvili's plan succeeds.