Estonian intelligence believes Ukrainian strike on Russia's Toropets will affect war's course in coming weeks

The Estonian General Staff anticipates that Russian forces will experience a significant shortage of ammunition at the front in the coming weeks due to a Ukrainian strike on a depot in the Russian city of Toropets.

As reported by Estonian public broadcaster ERR, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, commented on the successful Ukrainian strike on the Russian ammunition depot in Toropets.

He stated that Ukraine successfully targeted the storage facility while some of the ammunition was not secured in bunkers, leading to a chain of explosions.

"30,000 tonnes of explosive ordnance were detonated, which means 750,000 shells. If we take the average battle rate, the Russian Federation has fired 10,000 rounds a week. So that's two to three months' supply of ammunition. As a result of this attack, Russia has suffered losses in ammunition and we will see the impact of these losses on the front in the coming weeks," said Kiviselg.

Commenting on the recent events in the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kiviselg noted that Russia continues to maintain the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia's operational pressure on Ukraine has gradually increased this week, reaching 194 incidences of contact per night. This shows that there is still a desire by the Russian Federation to conquer the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts," Kiviselg noted.

The Pokrovsk front is witnessing the highest number of hostilities, similar to last week. "Despite what is happening in Kursk, the Russian Federation has not withdrawn troops from the Pokrovsk direction, and no major change is expected there in the coming weeks," Kiviselg explained.

As for the Ukrainian operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces are continuing to hold the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia did launch a counter-attack last week and has advanced slightly, but the Ukrainians are still holding their positions," Kiviselg said. "Last Thursday the Ukrainians also opened up a new offensive corridor in the Glushkovo area, where the Ukrainians have advanced almost six kilometres into Russia," the colonel stressed.

Earlier, UK Defence Intelligence reported that Russia's average daily losses in terms of killed and wounded in May and June 2024 reached the highest level recorded throughout its aggressive war against Ukraine.

UK intelligence also indicated that, due to substantial battlefield losses and a slow pace of replacement, Russia has been compelled to significantly increase payments to military personnel to attract more people to join the war.