Why power in Czechia set to change and what it means for Ukraine

Czechia is one of Ukraine’s key allies during the war.

Such support though became possible primarily due to a change in power in the country in late 2021, right before Russia's full-scale invasion.

The next parliamentary election in Czechia is set to be held in over a year. And the question arises: will the level of support for Ukraine remain if former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and his ANO party return to power?

The likelihood of this scenario has significantly increased after the local elections on 20-21 September.

Read more about the signals these elections sent and what changes to expect in the article by Yurii Panchenko, the European Pravda editor – Czechia votes for a comeback: Why pro-Ukrainian coalition may lose power.

Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s strategy of presenting the local elections as a vote of no confidence in the current government has worked.

The number of seats in regional governments held by his ANO party has increased from 178 to 292.

Overall, ANO received 34.5% of the vote in the local elections, which nearly guarantees victory in the parliamentary election and Babiš’s return to power.

Additionally, the opposition’s success in winning governeurships in most regions further strengthens ANO’s position for next year’s elections.

It’s important to remember that, aside from the non-voting residents of Prague (where Babiš is not very popular), the election results may have been influenced by low turnout in regions affected by widespread flooding.

Low turnout typically benefits political forces that capitalise on protest sentiments.

As a result, the parties in the current coalition were unable to boast of any success.

The most shocking failure were the Pirates with a meager 3.5%.

The leadership of the party quickly responded to this signal from voters, announcing that its entire leadership will resign.

It is also possible that the party will take more drastic steps, including leaving the coalition.

Such a move would not deprive the coalition of its parliamentary majority.

However, the main risk of the Pirates’ failure lies in the fact that by the 2025 election, the coalition parties may no longer hold a majority.

This also significantly increases the likelihood of a Babiš comeback.

Another worrying sign from the current elections is the relative success of the bloc Stačilo! (which translates from Czech as Enough!), particularly the Czech Communists.

For the party of the current Prime Minister Petr Fiala (ODS), the results of these local elections cannot be called a failure.

The party retains leadership in two regions: South Bohemia and South Moravia.

ODS achieved its greatest success in South Bohemia, where the campaign was led by longtime Fiala rival Martin Kuba.

Under Fiala’s leadership, ODS has distanced itself from its former image as "soft Eurosceptics." Kuba, on the other hand, advocates returning to that policy, criticising Fiala for what he considers excessive military support for Ukraine.

This suggests that, should ODS lose the 2025 elections, Kuba may replace Fiala as party leader. After that, he could potentially form a coalition with ANO.

That said, Babiš is unlikely to become "another Fico" or "another Orbán," as no Czech prime minister would "shoot themselves in the foot" by canceling contracts with Ukraine.

However, a victory for Babiš would amplify the voices within the EU calling for a quick end to the war, even at the cost of concessions from Ukraine.