How "friends of Putin" in Germany creating more problems for Scholz and aid for Ukraine

On Sunday, Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) celebrated a victory in the local elections in the eastern German state of Brandenburg.

However, neither the party’s win nor the temporary calm brought any clear relief for the chancellor.

Although the region managed to prevent a win of the pro-Russian far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), Scholz's party will likely have to cooperate with another pro-Russian group – the leftist Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).

Following the September elections in three eastern states, Germany is effectively starting its 2025 election campaign. The ruling coalition in Berlin is entering this campaign in a near-death state, while the pro-Russian left– and right-wing radicals have strengthened their positions.

Read more about the political situation in Germany and how it might impact aid for Ukraine if the article by Khrystyna Bondarieva, a European Pravda journalist – Brandenburg changes Germany: How Scholz's party came to an alliance with 'friends of Putin'.

Brandenburg is an important region for the Social Democrats, the chancellor's party. It's the only state in the east where they’ve continuously held power since 1990. Moreover, Olaf Scholz lives with his wife in Potsdam, near Berlin.

All of Brandenburg was plastered with posters of Dietmar Woidke, who has been the state’s leader for 11 years, including with humorous slogans like "If bald, then Woidke."

Woidke tried to distance himself as much as possible from the unpopular chancellor, believing that the decisions of the ruling coalition and Scholz’s image were dragging the party down. And it seems he was right.

Another key factor why SPD won was the fear among local voters of letting the far-right into power.

Now the Social Democrats face a difficult and even unpleasant stage of forming a coalition.

The election results have significantly limited the options for the Social Democrats' alliances.

An alliance with AfD is completely rejected by Woidke. Meanwhile, the far-right won’t just be in opposition. They secured what is known as a blocking minority of mandates, meaning they can block important decisions, like amending the state constitution or appointing constitutional court judges.

A coalition between just SPD and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is impossible because the two parties are one seat short of a majority.

The most likely scenario, and this is bad news, is that Brandenburg’s SPD will begin negotiations with Sahra Wagenknecht’s pro-Russian leftists, who oppose military aid for Ukraine and call for "peace" with Russia on Putin’s terms.

Scholz's party secretary in Berlin, Kevin Kühnert, said he knows very little about BSW's regional political strategy, but if negotiations begin, he expects it to open a "Pandora's box."

But will the SPD make foreign policy concessions to "Putin’s friends"?

Woidke hinted that decisions regarding foreign policy should remain outside coalition talks.

The Brandenburg victory did not provide much relief for Scholz.

On the contrary, it showed that the Social Democrats can rapidly gain support if they distance themselves from the chancellor. So turbulent times almost certainly lie ahead for the head of the government.

Scholz will not be able to ignore the growing voter sympathy for AfD and BSW, which have already gained a larger role in three eastern states and are aiming for the same at the federal level. The chancellor has introduced border controls in response to voter concerns about migration, a major issue for both radical parties.

Recent problems with funding for Ukrainian aid during budget discussions suggest that a shift in support for Ukraine is not out of the question.