US intelligence warns of risks to Ukraine due to its possible strikes on Russian territory – NYT
US intelligence believes that if Ukraine is granted permission to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory, Russia could respond with more aggressive actions. This could include "lethal attacks" against the United States and its allies.
According to The New York Times, the previously unpublished intelligence assessment also understates the impact that long-range missiles would have on the conflict, as the Ukrainians currently have a limited number of weapons and it is unclear how many others, if any, Western allies could provide.
The assessment highlights what intelligence analysts consider to be the potential risks and uncertain benefits of making this decision to allow long-range strikes deep into Russia.
The data received may partially explain why Biden has found it so difficult to make this decision and demonstrate the internal pressure on him to deny Zelenskyy's request. The US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss this intelligence and internal discussions, said it remained unclear what Biden would decide to do.
Zelenskyy has lobbied publicly and privately for permission to use the missiles.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has frequently used threats to discourage the US and its coalition partners from providing more advanced weapons systems to the Ukrainians.
Critics of Biden and his advisers say they are far too easily intimidated by Putin's hostile rhetoric, and that the administration's gradual approach to arming the Ukrainians has put them at a disadvantage on the battlefield. Supporters of their approach say it has been largely successful in preventing a violent Russian response.
UK leaders have been more willing to take risks. They were in favour of allowing the Ukrainians to use the long-range missiles they had provided to strike deep inside Russia, but they waited to see where Biden stood on the issue before authorising strikes, as a potential Russian response could have implications for the overall security of the coalition.
The intelligence report describes a range of possible Russian responses to the decision to allow long-range strikes with US– and European-made missiles, from increased arson and sabotage at facilities in Europe to potentially deadly attacks on US and European military bases.
US officials say that the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Federation is responsible for most of the sabotage in Europe that has taken place so far. If Putin decides to expand this covert action in response to the use of US and European missiles deep inside Russia, US officials believe the Russians will continue to do so secretly, as opposed to launching overt attacks on US and European facilities and bases to reduce the risk of a wider conflict.
On 25 September, Putin said that Russia would expand the conditions under which it is ready to use nuclear weapons.
The EU said that Putin's new nuclear threats would not change the EU's position on continuing to support Ukraine.
The UK Foreign Secretary said that a decision on lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western long-range weapons against military targets in Russia could be made by early winter.