Can Austria avoid becoming pro-Russian after the far right triumph?
The far-right, Eurosceptic Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), led by Russia-friendly Herbert Kickl, has made history by securing first place in the parliamentary election.
The gap between the far-right and Chancellor Karl Nehammer's party is larger than predicted – 2.7%.
It is still too early to speak of a catastrophe regarding the threat of a government led by the far right.
Read more about the parliamentary election results in Austria and the risks they pose for Ukraine in the article by journalist Khrystyna Bondarieva – Austria is rocking: Why the far right triumph has not yet become a catastrophe for Ukraine.
"Another win for the Patriots: a historic victory for FPÖ in Austria! Congratulations to Herbert Kickl!" Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán expressed his joy at the triumph of his allies in the European Parliament following the Austrian elections on Sunday.
Far-rightists from across Europe were celebrating the success of Austria’s FPÖ.
"We are winning! Times are changing," stated Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders.
Indeed, the victory of the Freedom Party of Austria has become another visible demonstration of the strengthening positions of the far-right in Europe in recent times.
The first analysis of the Austrian voting results showed that the FPÖ triumphed for many of the same reasons as far-right parties in other countries.
Primarily, this was due to a strong desire among voters to change the current government, which, in the eyes of Austrians, has failed to cope with inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.
In particular, six out of ten voters in Austria were convinced that the country was developing negatively.
The FPÖ's campaign advocated for halting armed support for Ukraine at the EU level and immediate peace negotiations with Russia to eliminate one of the "causes" of the economic woes facing Austrians. In this context, the party also promoted lifting sanctions against Russia.
Moreover, the party managed to gain votes thanks to active corona-scepticism, bordering on support for conspiracy theories and dubious COVID treatment methods, as well as a tough stance against migrants.
In contrast, Chancellor Karl Nehammer's People's Party (ÖVP), which has shown a pro-Ukrainian position, albeit within the framework of Austrian neutrality, has suffered a loud fiasco. The party experienced the most painful losses of all parties in this election, losing 11%.
The winning FPÖ has only one chance to enter the government, uniting with Chancellor Nehammer's ÖVP.
The "people’s party" is ready for a new alliance with the far right but is adamant about not playing the role of a junior partner.
The ÖVP will not support a government led by Kickl (as he is too toxic) and will try to promote a scenario in which Nehammer remains head of government. Moreover, they have leverage for this: the "people's party" may try to form a coalition with other partners.
Whether Kickl is ready to give up the chancellorship is an open question. He ran his campaign on the promise of becoming the "people's chancellor" – a term once used by Adolf Hitler.
As a neutral country, Austria has so far provided only humanitarian and financial support to Ukraine on a bilateral level.
However, it has not blocked sanctions decisions or funding for arms to Kyiv from EU funds, and it has supported the initiation of negotiations regarding Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
Thus, if a new government is formed without the involvement of the far right, one can expect Austria to continue its friendly course toward Ukraine.
However, the likelihood of a scenario in which the FPÖ successfully forms a government as the senior partner, whether led by Kickl or not, is quite high.
It is still possible to avoid a catastrophic scenario.