What political plans does Poland's President have and what does it mean for Ukraine?

Polish President Andrzej Duda is ending his second five-year term. The next presidential election is set to take place next year. A new person will lead Poland after it.

However, it is likely that Duda will not completely leave politics. Even though it looks speculative now, there is growing indirect evidence suggesting this scenario.

Read more in the article by political science candidate and international affairs expert Stanislav Zhelihovskyi Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in political science and international expert – Retirement or a new party? Poland's president prepares for resignation but will still influence the country.

At the 2023 UN General Assembly, Duda's statements regarding the Russia-Ukraine war starkly contrasted with his statements from the previous year. In 2023, Duda likened Ukraine to "a drowning person, capable of pulling down those trying to help." But he made remarks that fully supported Ukraine in 2024.

Since mid-2024, more controversial statements about Ukraine have been made by members of the current government, led by Donald Tusk, including Tusk himself. Duda, on the other hand, has frequently questioned these comments and actions.

The presidency may not be Duda’s final political role.

Duda's second term as president will end by July 2025, raising questions about his political future. It has been rumoured that he could pursue an international or political career. Some speculate that he may aim for the presidency of the International Olympic Committee, although former President Aleksander Kwaśniewski believes this is unlikely.

A more plausible scenario is that Duda may try to create his own political party. Such rumours have been circulating for a while. In Poland, there are no legal restrictions preventing former presidents from engaging in political activity.

However, Duda is unlikely to become the next leader of the Law and Justice party (PiS), as his chances of succeeding Jarosław Kaczyński are slim. Instead, Duda might aim to lead a new political force.

Despite these possibilities, Ewa Marciniak, Director of the Polish Public Opinion Research Center, believes Duda has little chance of founding a successful political party because there is no space for a new right-wing party in Poland. Marciniak predicts that Duda will remain in the "political shadows" after his presidency and may instead establish an NGO.

Marciniak suggests that if Duda forms an NGO, current Presidential Chief of Staff Marcin Mastalerek could become his right-hand man, potentially forming a political duo that would continue to have a public presence.

A poll conducted in September by the Pollster Research Institute for Super Express found that over 9% of respondents were ready to support a hypothetical Duda-led party. This potential support could place the party in fifth place in the Polish political landscape.

Some politicians are expressing interest in joining this potential political movement.

More details about Andrzej Duda's post-presidential life are likely to emerge very soon.