How Poland's opposition leader is going to Replace Andrzej Duda?
Although the presidential election in Poland is set to be held next year, one can feel how it is coming closer, influencing both Polish domestic politics and relations with Ukraine.
One of the most pressing questions is who will be the candidate from the most influential and popular political forces. The current president, Andrzej Duda, cannot run for another term.
While it is more or less clear regarding Prime Minister Donald Tusk's party, the situation with the main opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), is more intriguing.
Read more about Tusk’s main opponents as presidential candidates and whether any of them pose challenges for Ukraine in the article by Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in political science and international expert, and Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda editor - Poland after Duda: How PiS plans to win the presidential election and strengthen its influence on the country.
The PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński has recently stated that the party’s presidential candidate should be "young, tall, impressive, handsome," fluent in languages and have international experience. Essentially, this is a guiding framework helping Kaczyński choose the right person.
Kaczyński mentioned in an interview with wPolsce24.pl in early September that there are five potential candidates.
The list includes:
– PiS MP and former West Pomeranian Voivode Zbigniew Bogucki;
– PiS MEP and former Mazovian and Łódź Voivode Tobiasz Bocheński;
– Head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), Karol Nawrocki;
– MEP from Sovereign Poland and the PiS parliamentary group, and former Deputy Minister of Justice, Patryk Jaki;
– Former Polish representative to NATO and current advisor to President Andrzej Duda, Tomasz Szatkowski.
However, Mateusz Morawiecki, who headed the Polish government from 2017 to 2023, also has certain chances. His candidacy has both advantages and disadvantages, but the final decision rests with PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, who is not yet ready to back Morawiecki.
Nevertheless, there is speculation within PiS that Morawiecki’s candidacy could still be considered due to his financial resources.
Currently, Karol Nawrocki seems to have a strong chance of winning this nomination. He fits Kaczyński's stated criteria.
This, however, may not be the best news for Ukraine.
Nawrocki, although not a PiS member, is a recognised historian and a manager of Polish memory policies, which form a significant part of Kaczyński’s political agenda.
Since 2021, he has worked at the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), first as deputy head and later as head.
There has been increased effort to honour Polish national heroes since he led the Institute. The Institute, with the support of President Andrzej Duda, has organised numerous events in this field.
According to political marketing experts, Nawrocki has a strong chance of reaching the second round of the presidential election. Moreover, there is enough time to convince Polish citizens to support him if his campaign is well-managed.
If this happens, it could pose a significant challenge for Ukraine. Given the emphasis on historical memory policies and the sensitive topics for both Poles and Ukrainians, it is inevitable that historical disputes will intensify during the election campaign.
At the same time, Nawrocki's candidacy has several drawbacks, and other candidates also have reasonable chances.