What the first year of Poland’s new government remembered for and whether Ukraine benefited from it
On 15 October 2023, Poland elected a new parliament.
These elections surprised many, ending the eight years of near-total rule of the Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Donald Tusk, who returned as the Prime Minister, declared back then that election day would go down in history, comparable to the founding of Solidarity and the first semi-free elections of 1989.
Read more to find out whether the new government has kept its promises and whether there has been any improvement in relations with Ukraine in the article by by Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in political science and international expert, and Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda editor – Changes not in Ukraine's favour: How the first year of the new government 'reset' Poland.
The new coalition government was formed by Donald Tusk's party Civic Platform, the Third Way (an alliance of the Polish People's Party and the Poland 2050 movement), as well as the left-wing bloc New Left.
On 12 December 2023, the new government, led by Tusk, received a vote of confidence in the Sejm and was sworn in the following day.
The first year in power proved to be a significant challenge for the coalition.
According to a poll by IBRiS, the Polish public mostly negatively evaluated the current government and Tusk himself.
Coalitions of ideologically opposing parties are rarely sustainable.
Donald Tusk managed to avoid major internal conflicts within the coalition until recently though.
The main reason for this was the coalition parties' shared dislike of the former ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) and their desire to hold their predecessors accountable for numerous abuses during their tenure.
The key opponent of the new government became President Andrzej Duda.
Contrary to expectations, the new government, while fighting PiS, did not shy away from actions that are legally questionable.
Such actions have triggered strong resistance and led to mass mobilisations of opponents, something the coalition was clearly unprepared for.
The upcoming presidential elections, expected in spring or summer of next year, have become even more crucial for the coalition.
However, their chances are being undermined by internal disputes and failure to fulfil campaign promises.
The conservatives of Third Way managed to block the liberalisation of abortion laws, which had been one of Tusk’s key campaign promises.
Meanwhile, the government’s shift toward the right is frustrating the left. Conflicts between Tusk and ministers from the New Left are becoming increasingly frequent.
A year after the victory of the 15 October Coalition, it has become clear that 2023 was not a breakthrough, but rather a change of facade.
Polish-Ukrainian relations are one of the most vivid examples of the new coalition's "reversal."
By the end of Law and Justice’s rule, these relations were already in deep crisis. However, Tusk’s government has not made any efforts to resolve it.
Moreover, the Polish government is now openly stating that Ukraine's membership in the EU is not a vital interest for Poland. Even during PiS’s time, Polish officials would not have dared to make such statements about Ukraine.