Why the majority in Moldova votes against its European future

The results of the vote on 20 October in Moldova were shockingly different from all predictions. No one expected this outcome.

The referendum on European integration gave a positive result. Voters, by a narrow margin, supported amendments to the constitution, meaning that provisions on European integration will now be included in Moldova's main law. This result though was secured by the diaspora. In contrast, residents of Moldova opposed the country's closer ties with the EU.

The results of the presidential election are also not very encouraging.

Formally, President Maia Sandu came in first place and still has a good chance of winning in the second round. But this victory will not come easily and will likely also be secured by the diaspora.

Read more to understand what's going on in Moldova and what consequences this may bear in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, the European Pravda editor (from Moldova) – Moldova against Europe: How Sandu's 'victory' turned into a disaster.

On the evening of 20 October, there was a sense of anticipation at Maia Sandu's campaign headquarters in Chișinău, not just for a victory, but a triumph. It seemed there was every reason for this optimism.

The strategy that Moldova's pro-European government had been working on in recent months worked even better than expected, as proven by data coming in from the Central Election Commission (CEC) during the voting. Therefore, victory seemed assured.

All of Sandu's main opponents had a pro-Russian image, competing for the same electorate. Meanwhile, Sandu had a significant advantage – she was the only candidate promising to lead Moldova into the EU and had tangible achievements to back up that promise.

However, Sandu faced an invisible opponent that is very difficult to overcome – voter turnout.

This is why the idea of holding a referendum on the European path alongside the presidential election emerged. This vote was supposed to turn the "boring and uninteresting" election into another historic event for the country. The referendum did indeed become the focal point of public debate and Russian efforts, although there were skeptical assessments of the importance of these constitutional changes.

The day of voting proved that the plan worked. Turnout set records, including in Chișinău, which was crucial for Sandu. Even more importantly, a record number of voters went to the polls in the EU, where support for the EU and Sandu was guaranteed.

Nearly 240,000 voters from the diaspora, compared to 1.3 million within Moldova, signaled success. In Sandu’s headquarters, there was even talk of a high likelihood of winning in the first round, especially since observations from the ground added to the optimism.

But the first results of vote counting from the CEC caused shock.

The CEC reported that votes against the European choice were dominating.

This trend was consistent in all regions of Moldova.

In Sandu’s press center, triumph turned to despair. Her promised press conference was constantly delayed, and later her statement was carefully crafted to say almost nothing.

In the end, according to the vote count, 50.46% of voters said "yes" in the referendum to amend the constitution for European integration, while 49.54% said "no." The difference in votes between supporters and opponents was just 13,596.

As for the first round of the presidential election, Maia Sandu advanced to the second round along with Alexandr Stoianoglo, the candidate from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova.

However, the fact that Sandu received less than 50% of the vote means that she has "lost the referendum on trust in the government."

Nevertheless, it’s important to emphasise that Sandu’s chances of victory remain quite significant.

Yet even if Sandu makes a final push and wins the second round, a bigger challenge looms ahead: the 2025 parliamentary elections.

Judging by the election results, and especially the referendum, it’s becoming clear that a strong pro-European choice is "falling out of fashion" among Ukraine's neighbours.