Can Trump change his stance on Ukraine?
Donald Trump views Ukraine as something bad and mostly harmful to him personally.
Hopes that Trump’s stance on Ukraine might change if he returns to the White House seem more like wishful thinking. His has a well-established and deeply rooted picture of Ukraine. Yes, Trump is a populist and demagogue, so his words can differ from his actions, but not in this case.
Read more to better understand the Republican’s stance in the article by Volodymyr Dubovyk, the director of the Center for International Studies – The history of dislike: How Donald Trump’s stance on Ukraine was formed and evolved.
The author has analysed Trump’s statements and publications on Ukraine since 2016, when he became a US presidential candidate and ultimately won the election.
By 2016, Russia’s war against Ukraine had been ongoing for two years. However, this didn’t stop Trump from making statements like, since many Ukrainians speak Russian, it makes sense to think that these lands should be part of Russia.
During the 2016 election campaign, information from Ukraine helped Democrats "torpedo" Paul Manafort, who had been leading Trump’s campaign since March 2016.
Trump never forgot how, in his view, Ukrainians ended up on the opposite side of the barricades.
In the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration, it became clear that he was leaning toward a deal with Putin, where Ukraine’s interests would be a bargaining chip (something to remember today).
But why did he agree to the administration's proposal to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine? Simply because this occurred during the investigation into his campaign’s ties to Russia. Therefore, Trump couldn’t make concessions to Moscow, as he was under intense scrutiny from the press and political opponents.
It’s also important to understand that in a potential future Republican administration, this time, he will be surrounded exclusively by loyalists, people who won’t limit or restrain his impulses.
Recently, we learned how Trump, almost apologetically, asked Putin how he would react to America supplying weapons to Ukraine, as if emphasising, "it’s not me," it’s not my idea, but I have to do it. We also know that Putin responded, saying it would be a mistake and that it would not change anything.
Regarding this last point, it’s worth recalling Trump’s belief that Ukraine has no chance against Russia, that it’s destined to lose, while Russia is destined to win.
Trump’s personal attitude toward Vladimir Putin borders on admiration. Putin is the only world leader Trump has never spoken ill of and has often defended from criticism. After the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, Trump quickly praised Putin as "brilliant."
Trump's views on democracy are also peculiar. He doesn't see it as an imperative value, which is why he has better relationships with authoritarian leaders.
The world order doesn’t satisfy him; violations of international norms and laws don’t faze him. The European Union is simply an opponent in his view. NATO is an organisation of no use, whose members, according to Trump, don’t pay their dues.
Trump’s attitude toward Ukraine was shaped by people who have no sympathy for it.
When we hear Trump say that Ukrainians are bad people, utterly corrupt, don’t like him, and prefer liberal democracy (as opposed to "illiberal" or some "sovereign" version), this echoes the influence of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Later, Trump created an atmosphere of genuine anti-Ukrainian hysteria within his wing of the Republican Party.