How the final days ahead of Georgia’s decisive elections increase the likelihood of a forceful scenario

On Monday, the European affairs ministers of 13 European Union members stated that Georgia will not be able to join the EU unless the government changes its course.

"To interpret this clear decision in even the slightest light or in a different way is either delusional or simply false," EU officials warned the Georgian government.

Such blunt language at such a high level had not been used before by the EU to refute the claims of the Georgian authorities. For example, the Georgian government had suggested that all criticism was merely pre-election rhetoric, and that the West would inevitably return to constructive dialogue with Tbilisi after the elections.

On 26 October, the parliamentary election is set to be held on Georgia.

Read more about the pre-election struggle, which is reaching its climax and may lead to a forceful confrontation, in an article by Yurii Panchenko, the European Pravda editor – Tbilisi between two fires: what could determine the winner of Georgia's elections.

Sunday, 20 October: less than a week remains before the decisive elections.

On this day, the opposition announced a massive march Georgia Chooses the European Union. The march culminated in a rally on Freedom Square, and visually, it became the largest political action in Georgia in at least the last decade.

"This is surely a sign that a new future is coming, a new Georgia is approaching! The Georgia standing in front of me today is a free Georgia. There is no one here who was forced to come. No one here who was told: if you don’t come, you’ll lose your job. No student here came because they were told: 'if you don’t, you won’t get your scholarship,'" President Salome Zourabichvili said from the stage.

The president affirmed the plans of the pro-European opposition, which includes the electoral blocs Strong Georgia, For Change, Unity, and the party Gakharia for Georgia, to form a technical government after the elections that will implement necessary reforms, after which early elections can be held.

These four political forces are running separately, and each must overcome the 5% electoral threshold.

This means that, according to sociological polls, these political forces will collectively receive about 55% of the vote. Given that this year’s elections in Georgia will be held for the first time without a majoritarian system, this is expected to guarantee a change in power.

That is, of course, if the current government agrees to step down voluntarily.

Meanwhile, the ruling party claims that the opposition bussed people in for their rally and even used footage from Georgian Dream rallies to show large crowds.

They are not only confident of their victory but also hope to secure a constitutional majority in parliament. At least, pro-government media are publishing poll results suggesting such an outcome.

To emphasise their support, Georgian Dream is planning to hold its own rally on 23 October .

It's no doubt that administrative pressure will help them gather a significant number of participants, but the artificial nature of this event will be evident to everyone.

The only topic that might save the Georgian government is the prospect of peaceful reintegration with the Russian-occupied regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

However, it seems that the Russian authorities believe they have already given enough "gifts" to Georgian Dream, including opening their market, resuming flights, lifting visa requirements, and recently even waiving visas for long-term stays in Russia, theoretically easing employment.

Under such circumstances, the key question is whether Georgian Dream is prepared to hold onto power by force if they lose?

Recent events have significantly increased the likelihood of a forceful scenario.