What helped Trump make a leap in election race and can Harris catch up?
We may know the name of the next President of the United States in just two weeks.
The world always closely follows US election campaigns, and now, in times of global crises, it is of utmost importance to know who will lead the informal leader of the Western world: Kamala Harris, the "successor" of the current administration, or the unpredictable Donald Trump.
Read more about the twists of the election campaign and the factors that could determine the outcome in the article by Oleh Pavliuk, a European Pravda journalist – Decisive days of the US election: How Trump is closing the margin and what could decide the next president.
The election race has only become more intriguing, with the situation remaining highly uncertain.
In all major mainstream and authoritative polls, both nationwide and in individual states, the margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is within the statistic error.
But the polling trend is clear: the Democrat is gradually losing her convincing lead over the former US president, while Trump is starting to regain lost ground.
What has caused Trump's surge?
First, after the initial shock, Republicans found more concrete messages to attack the Democratic candidate.
They associate Harris, who has been in the White House for three and a half years, with economic and immigration issues that remain top concerns for the American electorate. Although US vice presidents do not have the same policy-making authority as presidents.
Another effective line of attack by Republicans has been portraying Harris as too "leftist." Nicknames like "Comrade Kamala" or "Marxist" may not be very effective, but campaign ads reminding voters of her 2020 promise to fund gender transition surgeries for migrants from the budget had an impact.
Second, Kamala Harris is losing support among several key Democratic voting groups, most notably Black and Latino voters.
Why is this happening? Like the rest of the US population, these voters are primarily concerned with the economy and immigration. They are willing to overlook Trump's political unacceptability if he can provide economic prosperity.
And finally, the third factor: no matter what Trump says or how he behaves, he knows how to grab media attention and improvise effectively.
Even bad publicity is still publicity.
Of course, with less than two weeks before the US presidential election, the ratings of both Trump and Harris could still change significantly. At least three factors could influence this.
First, economic improvement. While Trump confidently leads among voters on economic issues, Harris has slightly narrowed the margin following more optimistic US labour market data and reduced inflation pressure.
Second, the issue of abortion, where the Democratic Party has a noticeable advantage over Republicans. This was evident during the 2022 midterm elections when Democrats managed to retain control of the Senate and defeat several Trump-backed candidates in key states.
Third, the escalation in the Middle East, which is currently benefiting the former US president. Another round of escalation will likely strengthen this trend.
We should also not forget about less influential factors that could still play a role.
Who knows what "black swan" may fly over the US election.