Can the opposition and the West force the Georgian Government to cancel the rigged elections?
The Georgian Central Election Commission announced a solid victory for the ruling Georgian Dream party, though it fell short of a constitutional majority.
This outcome has sharply escalated a political crisis: all opposition parties entering parliament have refused to recognise the elections as fair, and President Zourabishvili has similarly declared her non-recognition of the announced results.
The opposition's stance could be bolstered by a firm response from the West, calling for election invalidation. However, any potential unity within the EU on this matter is complicated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Nevertheless, citizens are not backing down. On 28 October, protests will begin in Georgia against election rigging, with the scope and scale of the demonstrations likely determining what comes next.
Read more on the situation in Georgia in an article by European Pravda editor Yurii Panchenko – Tbilisi is calling for help: How the elections went in Georgia and will the West back the protests.
On Saturday evening, immediately after voting finished in Georgia, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban congratulated the incumbent government on its victory.
In reality, this conclusion was based solely on an exit poll by Gorby, a polling agency of questionable repute, believed to have ties to Georgian Dream.
The discrepancies between exit poll results and the CEC's data are far from the only evidence of rigging.
Most notably, observers at the election reported evidence of a widespread falsification scheme.
The NGO coalition My Voice documented cases where the ruling party was pre-marked on ballots.
And it wasn’t just Georgian observers who saw problems.
All Western monitoring missions, which are usually cautious, issued stern statements.
In a drastic move, Georgian opposition parties jointly announced their refusal to recognise the election results and declined their parliamentary seats.
This situation is reminiscent of Georgia's 2020 elections.
The opposition's boycott then and now prevents the parliament from functioning, potentially leading to snap elections.
The reason is that at least 100 out of 150 MPs must be present at the first session of the new parliament, which is impossible without some opposition members.
This leverage is one of the opposition's strongest tools.
However, Georgian Dream insists that parliament will begin its work and that the government will be approved regardless. They haven’t explained how this would be possible, but in 2020, EU intervention helped resolve the situation.
Meanwhile, Brussels is hesitant to immediately respond to election violations and might delay any action.
The EU, in particular, is "awaiting the final report and recommendations from OSCE/ODIHR," which won’t be available for several months. Realistically, the chances of a unanimous EU stance on non-recognition of the elections are low, partly due to Viktor Orban's position.
In such cases, it is always the tempting to once again urge the Georgian government to address the violations before the next election, as has happened in previous elections.
It seems Georgian Dream has also prepared grounds for bargaining with the West.
But the decisive factor lies in the response of the public. The protests are set to begin at 7:00 PM on Monday, 28 October.
The situation on the streets of Georgian cities could well be the final push that compels European politicians to act.