Could government change in Lithuania affect its support for Ukraine?

The government is set to change soon in Lithuania, a close ally of Ukraine. The ruling Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats set to move into opposition.

The second round of parliamentary elections held on 27 October marked a historic victory for the Lithuanian Social Democrats, whose leader, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, is expected to become the new head of government. For the conservative party, this defeat means fresh elections, as the party leader and Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has resigned.

Read more to know who will form Lithuania's new government and whether this change could impact support for Ukraine in the article by Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda editor – Vilnius is turning to the left: Will a change in power in Lithuania impact support for Ukraine?

After the first round, it was clear that the Social Democrats had the highest chance of becoming the leading party in the new coalition. The second round solidified this position.

Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, leader of the Social Democrats, is expected to become the new head of government. Her candidacy is backed by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda.

Blinkevičiūtė previously served in Lithuania's government from 2000 to 2008 as Minister of Social Protection and Labour. Her tenure was controversial, as she secured significant increases in social benefits, which later became a point of criticism when these payouts negatively impacted the Lithuanian economy during the 2008 financial crisis.

Since 2009, Blinkevičiūtė has served as a Member of the European Parliament, and though she has held leadership roles in her party, she has been somewhat removed from domestic politics.

The Social Democrats' first coalition partner is already known. Negotiations began immediately after the first round with the Union of Democrats For Lithuania. This recently established center-left political force won 14 seats in the election.

Following the second round, the leader of this party, Saulius Skvernelis, visited the Social Democrats’ headquarters to confirm their coalition agreement. He is expected to take the position of Speaker in the new Seimas.

However, these two parties will hold only 66 seats combined, whereas 71 are required for a majority.

An alliance with the Liberal Movement (holding 12 seats), a party from the current coalition, could resolve this. The leader of the Liberal Movement, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, has expressed potential interest in joining such a coalition.

There may be ideological challenges here, as the Social Democrats are likely to insist that the new government focus on social policies.

If this coalition forms, it will have 78 seats, making it particularly stable.

It is unlikely that any Lithuanian government would significantly alter its foreign policy. Blinkevičiūtė’s government is expected to maintain strong support for Ukraine.

A recent statement from Blinkevičiūtė confirmed that the new government will not reduce defence spending, even though it currently stands at a substantial 3.5% of GDP.

Moreover, foreign policy in Lithuania is traditionally seen as the president’s responsibility.

Nevertheless, the Social Democrats' victory came largely from criticism of the previous government’s focus on international affairs at the expense of domestic issues.

This raises some concerns that the new Lithuanian government may not take as leading a role in supporting Kyiv and sanctioning Russia as the conservatives did.