How will Bulgaria exit its political crisis and halt "friends of Putin" resurgence?

On 27 October, Bulgaria held snap elections, the seventh attempt in the last three years to elect a parliament. So far, none of these attempts have resulted in a stable, preferably pro-European coalition. The pro-Russian party Revival has consistently seen its support grow.

While the results of the latest elections give hope for positive change, they do not promise a swift formation of a coalition. Read more in the article by Sergiy Gerasymchuk and Volodymyr-Nazarii Havrysh, the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" – Bulgaria's seventh attempt: Will new election give a path out of the deep political crisis?

Compared to previous elections, voter turnout increased by 4.53%, reaching 38.94%. This is a positive sign, as turnout in Bulgarian elections had been significantly declining in recent years. Some experts suggested this reflected voters' fatigue with endless elections.

Low turnout had benefited pro-Russian forces, creating a real risk that their supporters could consolidate and ultimately gain a parliamentary majority, which would have dire consequences.

Instead, the majority, 52.139%, in the new parliament went to classical Euro-Atlantic parties, interested in maintaining European and Euro-Atlantic unity: GERB-SDS, PP-DB, and DPS (DPS – A New Beginning).

However, this is still slightly less than these parties held in the previous elections (56.1%), while the combined support for the two classical pro-Russian parties, the Socialists and Revival, has even minimally increased (from 20.8% to 20.9%).

A notable feature of these elections was that Euro-Atlanticists actively played the card of "hope for an exit from permanent crisis." As this is already the seventh snap election, voters desperately needed hope that this would eventually come to an end.

The strategy worked. The electorate gave Euro-Atlanticists another chance to finally form an effective and, importantly, stable government. However, in any scenario, GERB-SDS led by Boyko Borissov remains crucial, having garnered the most votes.

One plausible scenario for coalition formation could be called An Old Recipe with a New Ingredient. This involves a coalition of the Euro-Atlantic parties GERB-SDS and PP-DB, along with the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms – APS (shortened from DPS-Dogan).

This is a "splinter" resulting from a split in the DPS party, primarily oriented towards the Turkish minority votes. The other part of this party is called DPS – A New Beginning"(DPS-Peevski).

Thus, the coalition would exclude the toxic Delyan Peevski but include Ahmed Dogan, who, even if he agrees to cooperate with Euro-Atlanticists, will carry the reputation of a "cat in a bag" for some time.

In this case, the key risk lies in Ahmed Dogan's stance towards Russia.

Moreover, it is likely to form a minority government supported by the two splintered factions of DPS (Dogan's and Peevski's), which would not formally join the GERB-SDS and PP-DB coalition.

If Euro-Atlanticists fail to form a government again, there is a risk that weary voters will seek "alternative parties" that could potentially either prolong the crisis or ally with the pro-Russian forces present in parliament.

Either way, it is very likely that the new parliament will prove more viable than its predecessors.

And perhaps, this Christmas, Bulgaria will gift itself and us a pro-Western government and the restoration of political stability.