Rising popularity of Poland's far-fight: causes and potential countermeasures

The mood in Poland was subdued to mark the resounding victory a year ago of the Donald Tusk-led coalition over Poland’s ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, led by Jarosław Kaczyński.

Tusk’s coalition managed to defeat the populists in a free but decidedly unfair election – the use of state money and PiS control of public media decidedly titled the playing field. 

But an election win over a populists doesn’t mark the end.

Read more about whether the Poles are ready to continue to remove the tentacles of populists from all corners of the country in the column by Sławomir Sierakowski, Senior Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations - Poland at risk? Far-right populists poised for victory in potential elections today.

As the columnist notes, an estimate of the turnout today indicates that 47-48% of those eligible would go to the polls today, and this would be one of the lowest turnouts in parliamentary elections of the last 20 years. 

"A year ago, young people, particularly young women, were the decisive factors in the voting. As expected, respondents' age is associated with their willingness to vote (67% among those over 40 and 60% among younger respondents). A year ago, these proportions were reversed with a large advantage for the younger ones.

Sadly, today almost nothing is left of this mobilization", Sławomir Sierakowski, writes.

According to him, half of those surveyed (51%) identify fairly little or very little with the government's program, message and actions.

He believes that it does not favor the Left and the Third Way, two key parts of the Tusk coalition. It is the electorates of these two political forces that are most disappointed by the lack of faster change in Poland and least identified with the government.

They are disappointed by the lack of faster settlements of PiS politicians, which is blocked by the PiS-linked President Andrzej Duda.

Sławomir Sierakowski adds that додає, support is retained by Kaczynski's PiS, while support has doubled by the extreme Confederation.

If elections were held now, Tusk's government would lose power (the combined support for the parties forming it is 43%) and the winners would be a potential coalition of PiS (30 per cent) and Confederation (15 per cent).

The author writes that the Confederation’s electorate is relatively the most disciplined (61% of those voting for the party in 2023 want to vote for it now as well) and PiS is in the second place(59%).

According tot the expert, in the case of the Civic Coalition and the Left, only one in two of their 2023 electorate would like to confirm their choice now.

"Tusk's new immigration policy, which he recently managed to push through in Brussels, the crux of which is the temporary suspension of the possibility to apply for asylum in Poland, is precisely an attempt to cut off the oxygen of the extreme right in Poland", Sierakowski writes.

There is, however, a possible happy ending to this story.

"In the presidential elections in seven months' time, which could unblock the government and lead to faster reforms, the absolute favorite is KO politician and current mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski", the author concludes.

According to him, election of Trzaskowski as president would be a breakthrough for the government and for Poland as a whole, already tired of the opportunism of the unpopular Andrzej Duda.