Estonian intelligence assesses whether North Korean troops can be effective in war against Ukraine

The deployment of North Korean troops to the Ukrainian front will not bring much change for the time being, and they are likely to suffer heavy losses.

As reported by Estonian public broadcaster ERR, commenting on the arrival of North Korean military personnel in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Commander of Estonian Defence Intelligence Centre, noted that they were likely deployed in early October and have since undergone preliminary training lasting two to four weeks.

After that, he said, "their redeployment to the Ukrainian front began".

"It is expected that North Korea has promised to send between 10,000 and 12,000 troops, including 500 officers and three generals, to the Russian Federation. The arrival of North Korean soldiers on the Ukrainian front is likely to be gradual. The deployment of the next North Korean units to the Ukrainian front will take place in the coming weeks," the Estonian intelligence official said.

He noted that, as a rule, North Korean soldiers are trained to fight in mountainous terrain, which means they are not familiar with Ukrainian territory, its climate and geography.

"And their training does not include combat operations in such conditions. The training they receive in the Russian Federation is certainly not of a very high level. Therefore, we can expect North Korean units to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine, and likely even more losses than Russian forces have suffered so far," Kiviselg said.

However, according to Kiviselg, North Korea is likely to continue to send troops to Russia and the Ukrainian front.

"Nevertheless, the current intelligence assessment remains that this deployment of North Korean units in Ukraine will continue," he said.

At the same time, according to the military, this will not bring significant changes to the front line.

"However, if this additional deployment of units to Russia, along with their training and subsequent arrival on the Ukrainian front, continues over the long term, it could indeed bring some changes to the front line," he concluded.

The latest US estimate suggests that North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to train and join the war against Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described the current reaction of Western countries to the involvement of North Korean troops as "zero".

In addition, Mike Turner, Chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee, believes that the United States and NATO allies should consider launching an attack directly against North Korean troops if they are on Ukrainian territory and take part in hostilities on the Kremlin's side.