How Germany is losing its chancellor and whether Scholz's successor will undermine aid to Ukraine

Germany is entering a heated election campaign.

On 6 November, German's ruling coalition collapsed. The main issue was no longer about preserving the coalition and government but about when exactly a snap election should be held.

Scholz announced that on 16 December, the parliament would consider a vote of confidence in the government. Following a likely rejection, Germans would head to the polls on 23 February to elect a new parliament and federal government.

Scholz approaches this campaign in a weak position.

His fellow party members increasingly call for his replacement with a more popular leader, a move Scholz himself opposes.

Read more about the situation the German chancellor faces and whether he has a chance to retain power in an article by Khrystyna Bondarieva, a European Pravda journalist – Everyone against the chancellor: How Germany is rapidly moving toward elections and who might replace Olaf Scholz.

The potential successor, and thus Scholz’s main rival, is a figure well-known to Ukrainians: German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.

On Monday, two leading Social Democrats from Hamburg, the city where Scholz grew up and served as mayor for seven years, called for the chancellor to step down.

Their motives are clear. They are dissatisfied with the current dynamics.

Based on current ratings, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is projected to come third in the elections, trailing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at nearly 20%. The clear frontrunners are the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with recent polls suggesting over 32% support.

According to Scholz’s Hamburg colleagues, Pistorius "can instill new confidence as he stands for decisive actions and clear statements."

In the following days, several other regional politicians also publicly backed Pistorius as Scholz’s replacement.

Pistorius has enjoyed high approval ratings since his appointment in January 2023.

This is partly due to his ability to avoid major scandals. He also largely stayed out of coalition disputes, and voters do not associate him with the "dysfunctional" coalition that recently collapsed.

Pistorius has also maintained clear communication on defence policy, stating that Germany must be prepared for war.

He has voiced a more resolute stance on supporting Ukraine.

Despite Pistorius’s polling advantage, his leadership within the party’s candidate list is not yet assured.

Pistorius currently lacks public supporters among the party’s senior leadership.

This is despite strong grassroots support: nearly 60% of SPD supporters want Pistorius as the chancellor candidate, while only 30% side with Scholz.

As long as Scholz remains the candidate, it is becoming increasingly apparent that he faces a very challenging campaign.

The atmosphere surrounding the debates over election timing and Scholz's speech in the Bundestag on Wednesday indicates that the campaign will be merciless for the chancellor.

In parliament, he faced criticism from both former allies and the opposition, with accusations that "no government has divided the country more deeply" and that Scholz himself "provoked the coalition’s split."

All indications point to Scholz being unlikely to lead the next government.