Does the Kremlin still have a chance for a comeback in Moldova, and who poses the main threat to Sandu?

After a tough victory in the presidential elections, achieved despite notable challenges and with a much narrower margin than polls had suggested, Moldova’s current leader, Maia Sandu, has encountered several pressing challenges.

Although Sandu managed to persuade many of the toxicity of Russian influence and even secured a mandate for tough measures to dismantle the Kremlin’s networks, this has not necessarily boosted her party's chances of success in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

In fact, the situation appears to be worsening.

Read more about the reasonds in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, the European Pravda editor – Sandu’s reset: Will Moldova retain its pro-Ukrainian Leadership and what is the main challenge?

For Maia Sandu and her party, the election results, especially the de facto referendum on European integration, have been a stark wake-up call. Voters signaled their dissatisfaction with Moldova’s trajectory and doubt that Sandu has fulfiled her campaign promises.

Before the second round of the presidential election, Sandu attempted to address public discontent by pledging a government reset if she won. However, the main grievance of Moldovan citizens remains clear: the unfulfiled promises from her 2020 campaign, when she first won the presidency by pledging to fight corruption, establish the rule of law and combat poverty. Crucially, corruption and law enforcement were the cornerstones of her victory.

Despite this, a significant government overhaul never occurred. Changes were limited to the heads of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, making it far from a comprehensive reset.

It is now evident that the current Moldovan government will likely persist only until the next elections. The date is yet to be announced. Sources in Chișinău suggest the most realistic is September or even October 2025, the latest permissible by law.

In the meantime, the government aims to create an "anti-corruption miracle." However, it is unlikely that any measures will produce changes noticeable to citizens by autumn 2025. This raises the possibility that voters may turn against Sandu’s party, the most pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian political force in Moldova's current parliament.

Notably, while Sandu’s party losing its parliamentary majority seems almost certain, it still has a chance to finish first. This depends not only on Sandu’s actions but also on whether other leading parties in the 2025 race can unite.

European Pravda has previously analysed the role of Alexandr Stoianoglo, Sandu’s opponent in the 2024 presidential runoff. Multiple sources indicate that Stoianoglo’s involvement in Moldova’s political processes is a foregone conclusion.

Will he form a new party or join one of the existing frontrunners? That remains unclear. However, if centrist candidates like Chișinău Mayor Ion Ceban (leader of the new MAN party) and Stoianoglo can unite and run together in the parliamentary elections, they could become the leading political force, potentially shaping the next government.

The key question remains: with whom will these politicians decide to form a coalition?