Why global leadership is expected from the EU

As the new European Commission takes office, a decisive moment arises for strong leadership in energy policy. In light of hints from the new US administration about potential policy change regarding Ukraine, Europe's commitment to reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels is critical, not only for its security but as a global signal of resolve.

Read more in the op-ed by Petras Katinas, an Energy Analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) – Avoiding a new dependency: Why the European Commission must lead the transition away from Russian fuel.

Katinas argues that the new US administration might consider lifting energy sanctions on Russia in exchange for a ceasefire in Ukraine’s ongoing war. In this context, the new European Commission has a rare historical opportunity to demonstrate leadership.

"The EU can pave a clear path to abandoning Russian fossil fuels while supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty through sustainable, strategic actions. Europe must remain steadfast in its commitment to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels and maintain sanctions against it," writes Katinas.

This vision aligns with the EU’s RePowerEU initiative, which aims to phase out Russian energy by 2027. However, despite its ambitious goals, the implementation of RePowerEU has faced significant challenges, creating gaps that Russia continues to exploit.

According to Katinas, the European Commission has a pivotal opportunity to address these gaps, strengthen the EU’s energy security, and reaffirm its support for Ukraine.

To achieve this, among other measures, the new European Commission must consider implementing clear guidelines and precise deadlines for the gradual cessation of Russian oil imports by landlocked member states. A CREA representative believes that establishing specific timelines will help ensure that these exceptions do not hinder progress.

Furthermore, the Commission should address loopholes in oil refining and explore the possibility of imposing restrictions on refineries heavily reliant on Russian crude oil.

The op-ed also highlights the issue of "shadow tankers" operating outside maritime regulations. Such vessels pose a risk of environmental catastrophe.

Natural gas remains a significant vulnerability for the EU, the analyst warns.

Although Brussels has declared a reduction in dependence on Russian gas, in the first half of 2024, imports of Russian natural gas to the EU increased by 27% compared to the same period in the previous year.

Petras Katinas suggests that the new European Commission should evaluate the capabilities and readiness of each member state to diversify gas sources.

He fears that some member states may revert to old trading practices with Russian suppliers, particularly as certain political factions push to reconsider bans on Russian fossil fuels due to economic pressures.

"Despite the appeal of returning to cheap Russian gas, EU countries must recognise that this short-sighted policy comes at a high cost.

Reliance on accessible Russian gas carries significant political risks borne by EU citizens," warns the CREA representative.

In his view, legally binding targets under RePowerEU are crucial to prevent potential setbacks and ensure a safer energy future.

By doing so, the op-ed's author asserts, Europe can strengthen Ukraine’s position, bolster its energy independence, and become a stabilising force amid global uncertainty.