What Trump's strong victory means for Ukraine and whether anything can restrain him

The US elections are over. Donald Trump's decisive victory has implications beyond just US politics.

The US elections involve not only the presidency but also governors and Congress. European Pravda explained that the worst outcome for Ukraine would be if both the presidency and both houses of Congress end up under one party, specifically, the Republicans. In such a case, there would be few checks in the US system to restrain Trump, even from actions that could destabilise the global order.

While the Senate, as polls suggested, has come under Trump’s party’s control, the results for the House of Representatives remain uncertain.

Read more about the initial results and immediate impacts on Ukraine and Europe in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko and Oleh Pavliuk of European Pravda – Trump's super victory: the main takeaways from the US elections and their implications for Ukraine.

It’s no secret that most European leaders (and citizens) would have preferred Kamala Harris as the next US president. However, confidence in this outcome was never solid. After her nomination, many European leaders expressed disappointment, with some rating her less favourably based on personal interactions when she was vice president.

But for some, Trump’s victory is welcome. This includes Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who backed Trump.

Orbán, who currently chairs the EU Council, has prepared for this moment. He scheduled the European Political Community summit for 7 November, followed by an informal EU leaders' meeting the next day.

This week, EU leaders and the NATO Secretary-General will gather in Budapest to discuss how to proceed in this new reality, though specific decisions may be challenging as Trump’s future actions remain unpredictable.

Some consequences are already clear though, especially for Ukraine.

First, Biden's idea of extending an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO now seems unlikely.

Another foreseeable result is that European leaders will need to prepare for greater independence in supporting Ukraine during its conflict, at least for a certain period.

Additionally, problems are expected on the Hungarian front, as Orbán has recently eased his pressure on Ukraine.

Trump's influence will become especially significant if Republicans achieve another victory.

Though Republicans haven’t secured the 60 Senate votes needed to bypass procedural votes, Trump’s party will control the Senate with a margin.

A critical factor will be whether Trump can also secure a majority in the House. The situation here remains uncertain, as Democrats still have a chance to form a majority in the lower chamber. The biggest battles are in around twenty districts where Republican and Democratic candidates have nearly equal chances.

This is crucial, as American law requires approval from both chambers. If Democrats win the majority, they will act as a check on the president’s most extreme initiatives.

However, if Republicans win the House as well, Trump, now bolstered by his demonstrated popularity, will have much more freedom of action. The unpredictability of American politics would then increase significantly.