How Scholz's government was dismissed and why Germany faces challenging elections
On 16 December, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in parliament.
This failure paves the way for a snap election, scheduled for the second half of February.
The process is proceeding as planned, based on prior agreements between the ruling coalition and the opposition. This is seen as the only way out of the political crisis triggered by the collapse of the tripartite coalition in early November.
Debates during Monday’s no-confidence discussion revealed how challenging the upcoming election campaign will be.
Moreover, Germany appears to be entering a new era where coalition-building and achieving consensus will become increasingly difficult tasks.
Read more in the article by Khrystyna Bondarieva, a European Pravda journalist – A black mark for Olaf Scholz: what awaits Germany after the government's collapse.
Leading the polls with around 31.5% is CDU/CSU, which governed Germany for 16 years under Angela Merkel. After three years in opposition, the bloc is poised to lead the next coalition, given its commanding lead in the polls.
The second-strongest party is the pro-Russian far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), with about 19.5%. For the first time, the AfD has put forward a candidate for chancellor – Alice Weidel. The party, however, will not be part of a coalition since all other political forces have erected a "firewall," refusing to cooperate with the right-wing populists.
Political leaders have agreed to hold snap elections on 23 February. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU leader, is almost certain to become the new chancellor.
Germany's economy, the largest in Europe, remains stagnant and is not expected to recover next year.
The leading figures of the outgoing coalition, former Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP), Economy Minister and Green chancellor candidate Robert Habeck, and Olaf Scholz himself, are seen by voters and the opposition as responsible for the economic downturn.
The election campaign will likely center around debates on the best approach to revive the economy, whether through increased public borrowing or further austerity measures.
During parliamentary debates, Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned that after 23 February, Germany could face complex coalition negotiations requiring parties to compromise. He cautioned that there are no guarantees of quickly forming a new government and criticised the CDU/CSU’s campaign programme as "yesterday's ideas" with unclear funding mechanisms.
Funding for continued support for Ukraine and positions on the future of the Russo-Ukraine war have become central of both the campaign and Monday's debates.
Scholz, known for his cautious political stance, positions himself as a leader seeking to help Ukraine while increasing Germany’s public debt. At the same time, he avoids "escalation" by refraining from delivering controversial weapons.
While it’s too early to tell if this strategy will succeed, it’s notable that Scholz's personal approval rating has slightly increased since the coalition’s collapse, whereas Merz’s has declined.
The CDU and SPD’s party-level support remains stable, which is more significant than individual leader ratings since Germans vote for parties, not directly for chancellors.
Merz, a staunch transatlanticist who has spent months criticising Scholz for being indecisive in supporting Ukraine, has recently adopted a more moderate tone.
This shift is likely due to accusations from both far-right and far-left radicals branding him a "war chancellor."