Why the EU still fails to restrict Russian oil exports and what should be done instead
The volume of seaborne crude oil exports from Russian ports in the Baltic Sea accounts for approximately 60% of Russia's total maritime oil exports. This involves the export of 10–12 million tonnes of crude oil monthly, transported by 90 to 100 tankers each month.
Sooner or later, the EU or a coalition of Baltic Sea countries, together with Norway and the United Kingdom, will be forced to implement restrictive measures against this maritime oil trade.
Read more in the article by Andrii Klymenko, editor-in-chief of BlackSeaNews – Six steps to stop Russian oil: how the EU can counter the aggressor's maritime trade.
In September 2024, the total seaborne export volume of Russian crude oil (excluding petroleum products) was around 20 million tonnes.
The Baltic Sea accounts for 60% of Russia's maritime crude oil exports.
Between 150 and 170 tankers participate in Russian oil exports from Baltic Sea ports monthly (excluding LNG). Of these, 100 are large crude oil tankers, each carrying 110,000 to 150,000 tonnes of oil.
Considering repeated voyages, the estimated total number of tankers transporting Russian crude oil and petroleum products from the Baltic and Black Sea ports over the past six months is about 900-1,000 vessels, including approximately 300-400 type of ship Crude Oil Tanker.
Over 30% of these shipments are conducted by tankers owned by Greek operators. In total, 34.2% of the tanker shipping market in this direction belongs to companies from EU+ countries.
Meanwhile, the share of tankers registered under "flags of convenience" (offshore countries where real tanker ownership can be obscured) is only 10–12%.
What steps by Western countries could lead to a reduction in the volume of sea transportation of Russian crude oil and petroleum products?
1. The EU (or a coalition of NATO and EU member states bordering the Baltic and Black Seas) should declare a "special period" allowing allied countries to implement actions and measures that may not fully comply with peacetime maritime law.
2. The EU should prohibit all shipowners from EU countries from transporting Russian oil and petroleum products from Russian ports. This would quickly reduce transportation volumes by 30%, creating a temporary tanker fleet shortage for Russia.
3. The EU (or a coalition of NATO and EU member states bordering the Baltic Sea) should immediately sanction all tankers identified over the past six months as transporting Russian crude oil and petroleum products.
4. The EU (or at least a coalition of NATO and EU member states bordering the Baltic Sea) should temporarily require mandatory pilotage in the Danish Straits, connecting the Baltic and North Seas.
Denying pilotage and other maritime services to sanctioned vessels would effectively block the only route for tankers carrying Russian "blood oil" from Baltic ports.
5. Alongside implementing these measures, experts must evaluate their potential impact on global oil prices and consider strategies to counteract Russian attempts to manipulate these prices.
6. The EU should clarify and tighten sanctions to categorically prohibit all EU ports from receiving tankers carrying oil and petroleum products loaded via ship-to-ship transfers.
Restricting Russian maritime oil exports from the Baltic Sea is complicated by Russia's strategy of leveraging geopolitical tensions to drive up global oil prices.
Therefore, measures to limit Russia's oil exports should be implemented gradually and in coordination with international partners.