Why Romania votes for anti-Ukrainian populists and what could prevent their rise to power
On 1 December, when Romania marks its National Day of Unity, the electoral season continued with parliamentary elections.
These elections were not expected to bring significant surprises. However, the first round a week earlier, had changed everything, raising concerns about the potential rise of openly pro-Russian forces.
Read more about the results of Romania's parliamentary elections and the potential configuration of the future coalition in the article by Serhii Herasymchuk and Rostyslav Klimov of the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council – Putin's friends have gained ground but haven’t won: what risks the new Romanian parliament brings.
Seven parties will be represented in Romania's new parliament: the Social Democratic Party (PSD, 23.04%), the pro-Russian Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR, 18.01%) and another coalition participant, the National Liberal Party (PNL, 14.55%), the Save Romania Union (USR, 11.86%), whose leader has the highest chance of becoming the new president, the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR, 6.58%), and two anti-Western parties, SOS (7.45%) and the Young People’s Party (POT, 6.12%).
For comparison, only four parties entered Romania's parliament following the 2020 elections.
The current parliamentary elections were meant to reset the country's political system, which had been destabilised by the fragmentation of the outgoing coalition, composed of the irreconcilable PSD and PNL.
While PSD maintained its leading position in the elections, it lost 5% of its support. The situation is worse for PNL, which lost around 10% of votes and failed to secure even second place.
This suggests that the era of two dominant parties, PNL and PSD, has ended. The new parliament will have a more diverse composition, making coalition-building more challenging.
Meanwhile, populists have tripled their collective support, rising from 9% in 2020 to 30% in 2024.
Four years ago, AUR, led by George Simion, was the only such party. Now, it is joined by SOS, led by Diana Șoșoacă, and POT, led by Anamaria Gavrile.
POT’s result, just above the electoral threshold, is another troubling sign. POT is effectively a far-nationalist, populist, and anti-Western party, similar to SOS, as evidenced by its support for the second-round presidential candidate Călin Georgescu, an anti-Western figure.
These three parties together will hold at least a third of parliamentary seats.
The only way to avoid political collapse or even the dissolution of parliament is for PSD, PNL and USR to form a ruling coalition.
Reaching a compromise between these parties and forming a majority alliance, however, will be a daunting task that will also fall to the newly elected president.
Adding to the complexity, the presidential election outcome is still uncertain. The parliamentary elections could influence the second-round dynamics. Given the populist parties' performance, the anti-Western candidate could secure at least 30% of the vote.
The 2024 Romanian parliamentary elections, like the first round of the presidential race, revealed voters’ desire for radical and specific changes.
Now is the time for conclusions and compromises.
By uniting for the good of Romania, PSD, PNL and USR representatives can curb the rise of far-right views and preserve Romania’s role as a serious player on the European stage.