Why 2025 to be a year of change and what it means for Ukraine – European Pravda's prediction
A year ago, international political forecasts focused on the fact that 2024 was supposed to be a year of elections. Over the year, elections were held in countries home to more than half the world’s population.
The most significant global consequences, including for Ukraine, will stem from the US elections.
So 2025 will be a year of change.
Read more about what events to expect in Europe over the next six months in the article by the editors of European Pravda – Sergiy Sydorenko and Yurii Panchenko – Blackmail, revolution and elections with Russian influence: what Ukraine should expect from its neighbours in 2025.
1. Energy blackmail. On New Year’s Eve, the Russian state monopoly cut off gas supplies to Transnistria, the Russian-occupied region of Moldova.
This move was anticipated, but the surprise lay in the formal reason cited by Gazprom: not the cessation of transit through Ukraine but the lack of payment for gas.
Russia’s true motive is clear though.
Although this targets a region under Russian control, the Kremlin aims to damage the Moldovan government's ratings ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections, hoping to ensure the victory of pro-Russian forces.
A potential humanitarian crisis may also emerge in Transnistria, requiring evacuation efforts. The authorities in Chișinău though hope to stave off the worst until the next heating season.
Simultaneously, Slovakia has joined the blackmail – this time targeting Ukraine. Nonetheless, there are reasons to believe that the Slovak leader’s threats are mere bluff. Slovakia is unlikely to initiate an energy blockade against Ukraine.
2. Poland and Ukraine’s EU membership. On 1 January 2025, Poland takes over the presidency of the EU Council. This role is pivotal in matters concerning EU enlargement.
Kyiv hopes that Poland’s relatively friendly leadership will help Ukraine (alongside Moldova) achieve a new record pace toward EU membership.
Poland’s support should not be taken for granted though.
The ongoing electoral campaign in Poland will influence its stance. Presidential elections in May 2025 are expected to be crucial for the former ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) to stage a comeback.
Unfortunately, Ukraine will remain a central issue in the Polish campaign.
3. Elections for and against Ukraine. Two other EU countries critical for Ukraine will hold elections in early 2025: Germany and Romania.
Germany, Europe's leading provider of military aid to Ukraine, is expected to see the Christian Democrats’ victory and Friedrich Merz as a chancellor. This is promising for Kyiv, as Merz has publicly supported missile transfers and strikes on Russia.
Romania’s elections, however, pose a potential risk for Ukraine.
4. Georgia – a territory of uncertainty. Lastly, Georgia cannot be overlooked. Its ruling party, Georgian Dream, continues to shift toward closer ties with the Kremlin.
In response to the country’s effective abandonment of a pro-Western course, an unprecedented political crisis has erupted in Georgia, far from being resolved.
Will there be a wave of protests to oust the current de facto pro-Russian government, or will the opposition fail, pushing Georgia closer to a Belarusian-like path? The answer to this question will also become clearer in 2025.